Suggestion: Chiroptera Venenata Milkman at 85–110 keys

Price Suggestion

~960 keys

venenata

65 votes up

13 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Wed, 30 May 18 00:05:38 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Update! I better fix the price of this.

Sale 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085628805#!/compare/1518739200/1518825600

Sold for a clean Purple Energy Pomade Prince (73 keys) + 10 pure (the scrap metal was involved in the trade :O)

73 + 10 = 83 (rounding to 85)

Mini for the Prince: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5addb863cf6c75730070c886

Sale 2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151546362#!/compare/1519257600/1519344000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095022965#!/compare/1519257600/1519344000

Sold for a clean Phosphorous Sergeant's Drill Hat (65 keys) + a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Medi Gun (41 keys) + 22 pure

65 + 42 + 22 = 129

Mini for the Drill: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5addb872cf6c75730070c88e

Caps at 110 (for some reason i thought that it was a good idea to erase data of the hats ive sold at that time :thinking:): http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:UsS8f4AJKD0J:www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29559468+&cd=1&hl=et&ct=clnk&gl=ee

Sales: 85 and 110. 85-110.

That's what I'm talm 'bout

Me and Bull are continuing what you started... a Milkman Masterrace!

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the pomade is going to be 60 now, making that sale 70. That'd make the hypothetical range here 70-130 (130 is capped by a BO)

With what we have here, it is actually really likely that 110 (or 130) is actually going to be an outlier here. I'd leave this outdated

I sold very quick for 130 (mixed aswell), aswell as there is no need to think of it as 70-130, its 70-110 either way, which is not a big range at all. The Pomade at the time of the trade was priced at 95, with no quicksellers also.

is the 130 you mention here a separate sale or is it the 110 sale? in the latter case, I stand by my earlier comment - that the sale will be an outlier compared to two sales far closer together

Idk how i confused you here, but the 2nd sale is 130 mixed capped at 110. I sold for 130 mixed very quick, hence i see no problems with going with a range of 70-110.

There was a lot of "aswell" in that sentence, which confused me as that'd indicate that there was more than what I had brought up.

When this was suggested, this was in-date at 85; there's a new sale at 70 and a sale that is far higher than either of those sales so in comparison it ends up an outlier.

You yourself indicate the pomade isn't stable, so by that logic you're going to force an update on a hat that was in-date when this was made with two sales, neither of which is favorable nor close to the other. To me, that's all the more reason not to update this with what we have here.

~~There were 2 "aswells" :thinking:~~ I see. So, with sales at 70 (Pomade dropped from 95), 85 pure and 110 (130 mixed capped), i see no reason not to go with a range of 70-110. I see nothing forceful in my logic.

130 deviates A LOT from the other sales and is an outlier as such; it should not be that difficult :p if you were to force an update here it'd be 70-85 and even there I'd be against since these sales are from 3+ months ago and the pomade has only recently changed (though it was evidently not 95 anymore when the sale occurred)

110 doesnt tho and either way, there have been bigger ranges before for sure :think:

yes but not in cases where one sale was a clear outlier. Even at the BO it's fairly far from the rest and it sold significantly over it.

All sales are lower, except for this one where someone paid well over a buyout, literally everything screams outlier.

MAYBE I would consider something like this if the hat was super outdated and this'd be a decent indication of it's current value, or if there were other indicators that 130 isnt an outlier, but you're literally using sales from when the last suggestion was made to create a big unnecessary range where two sales are pretty close together (especially considering sellers on pomade from around the time of the sale) and one sale that evidently stands out

Again, with sales at 70 (unusual), 85 (pure) and 110 (mixed), 110 doesnt feel like that significantly higher. What im confused about here is why is 110 an outlier, if its a mixed sale, most recent sale and i sold it very quick for 130 mixed. Unless, looking how fast i sold it for 130 mixed under the B/O of 110, one would think its better to go 130, instead of 110. So maybe youre thinking, that since there are 2 sales lower, 70 and 85 and a single sale higher, which sold for 130 mixed quick under the B/O of 110, that this single higher sale could be an outlier and the Milkman is best to be left outdated entirely (aka 70-85 wouldnt work), since 70 feels low, cause at the time of the trade Prince was 95 with no sellers significantly lower aka 85 is the best here for now?

nono the 110-130 thing here isnt because it sold fast. we cap sales at buyouts to reflect a pure value, but if people pay (way) over a buyout, you should also look at how much it did sell for (i.e if sales are 30, 32 and 35 but the 35 sale is actually 100 in stuff on a 35 BO, it's still an outlier even though it seems similar in value due to the BO; extreme example to get the point across).

but yeah, leaving outdated at 85 is the best here

Yeah, but the difference here isnt big at all, its 130 capped at 110 lol

20 keys - that's still fairly substantial on a 45 key gap as reference

Yeah, but shouldnt be enough to make the 130 sale an outlier completely as to not work in a range of 70-110. There have definitely been bigger B/O capped sales accepted in a range.

I agree with foamy, 110 keys is most likely an outlier here, all other recent datapoints suggest that. Leave this outdated.

I dont get the logic at all. Wonder why, i honestly wonder. Closing this tho, as there is no other choice anyway!