Using last month

Sales 1 & 2:

Marketplace.tf sales at $17.99 and $12

https://marketplace.tf/items/30816;5;u3010

17.99/1.97 = ~9.13

12/1.98 = ~6.06

X = 9

X = 6

Sale 3:

Sold for 7 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1523750400/1523836800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262680151#!/compare/1523577600/1523836800

X = 7

Sale 4:

Sold for 6 keys + 20 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046361441#!/compare/1524268800/1524873600

Bot.tf stats: https://i.imgur.com/4CLx3Ig.png

X = 6.5

Sale 5:

Sold for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118108251#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

X = 6

Sale 6:

Sold for 5 keys + 10 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090636918#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143789627#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

X = 5.5

Sale 7:

Sold with robo part for Steaming Tavish DeGroot

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277177996#!/compare/1523318400/1523491200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248240274#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200

Don’t wanna use this sale without a B/O, given the cheaper pure sales. Excluding.

Sellers:

~6.7 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/smoVEKv.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5188525809

10 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/5VYZSTF.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5375379250

https://i.imgur.com/wrkX2sQ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5190989405

79 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/8Z4cUCr.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5238788706

Sales at:

5.5

6

6.5 (2x)

7

9

https://i.imgur.com/X2E2St7.png - SCM buyers near 6, excluding 5.5.

The Steaming DeGroot sale would support 9, but given the current seller at ~6.7 keys, I’d say it’s an outlier. Excluding 9.

Going with 6-7.