Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1521417600/1521504000

Burning Crit Cloak (175) + Some Hot SMG (14) = ~190 keys

Minis

Crit Cloak:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1523232000/1523318400

Sold for Duped Burning Ballcap (152) + KaW Sterling (22) = 175 keys

SMG:

Generally only indate sale is 13 pure (R+ubi buys at this):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1523923200/1524009600

But there's one sale ~14 in sweets (it's like a week out of date but I guess it's fine to use as a mini)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049149130#!/compare/1517097600/1517184000

Micros

Sterling:

Seller for 8 months at 22. No recent sales, capping at seller

Ballcap:

https://marketplace.tf/items/617;5;u13 - ~142 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128939937#!/compare/1521676800/1521849600 - C.Moon Hairpiece (https://marketplace.tf/items/590;5;u38 - 152)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166102098#!/compare/1521158400/1521244800 - Tesla War Pig (no minis) + Showstopped Burstchester

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1523318400/1523404800 - 2 unpriced (no sales on one of them) + 2 very outdated hats

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206563156#!/compare/1520640000/1520726400

Duped Cauldron Bonk Boy (~245 keys)

Minis

Bonk Boy:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1523923200/1524009600 - D@D War Pig (150) + MG Yellow Belt (85) = 235 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044195191#!/compare/1520640000/1520726400 - Aussie RL (32) + PE Crit Cloak (215) = 247, rounding to 250

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600 - p.fetti Legendary Lid (less than 150 keys, low)

Taking 235-250

Micros

Crit Cloak:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044195191#!/compare/1523836800/1524182400 - Burning Brass Bucket (sugg @165-195, should be 165-205, taking that) + Max + 10 keys = ~215 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046178525#!/compare/1524873600/1525132800 - duped Vintage Alien Swarm (don't even know how to price this)

War Pig:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600 - bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1523923200/1524009600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184172198#!/compare/1523923200/1524009600 - Strange Darkblaze Sensation (295), probs added something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031870303#!/compare/1524614400/1524700800 - Added Isotope RL (40) for Scorching Ground Control (190) = 150

Yellowbelt:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400 - 70 keys, qs

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000 - Burning Thirst Blood (2 sellers @80) + ~4 keys in sweets = 84 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119597043#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000 - Beams Hat to kill for (can't find a mini)

85 keys flat

=======

RL mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136702159#!/compare/1522281600/1522368000 - Eldrich Sombrero (26) + MS Relaxo (15) = 41 keys

Sombrero mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094119347#!/compare/1522886400/1523232000 - Miami Harmburg (sale @25: https://marketplace.tf/items/30123;5;u61 )

https://marketplace.tf/items/30682;5;u105 - Sale @27

Taking mid = 26

Relaxo:

https://marketplace.tf/items/1115;5;u3010 - most recent sale @16

Sellers @14, taking mid = 15

Ground Control:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110827768#!/compare/1524182400/1524268800 - 190 keys in in-date unus (except Head, which had sellers at 16)

===========================================================================================================================

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077338856#!/compare/1522886400/1522972800

Added Smoking Peak (42) for Duped IaStE Brown Bomber (280) = ~240 keys

Minis

Peak:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292242424#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000 - 42 keys

Bomber:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977828464#!/compare/1521849600/1521936000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077338856#!/compare/1521849600/1521936000 - with ~21 keys for duped IaStE Stash (minis looks low)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255903931#!/compare/1520121600/1520208000 - Miami VV (200) + Hmoon Hermes (80) = 280 keys

Micros

Stash:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961279983#!/compare/1521763200/1521849600 - 203 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/54;5;u46 - ~255 keys

VV:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003935476#!/compare/1518480000/1518566400 - Added ~67 keys for Venenata Hat with no name (265) = ~200

Summary

So, there're 3 sales.

Sale 1 generally looks low as there isn't good mini for Ballcap.

I'd take 245 flat and exclude 3rd sale as these minis doesn't look really convincing and take sale 3rd as a support. They're close enough to each other.