Suggestion: Scorching Flames Tough Stuff Muffs at 450–615 keys

Price Suggestion

~227 keys

scorch

54 votes up

5 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Sat, 16 Jun 18 14:00:18 +0000 by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

The only usable sale is going to be outdated 3 days from making this suggestion. We must act swiftly! Edit: Fixed suggestion and updated sales.

Sale 1: Sold for a Infernal Flames I See You Taunt(12.69) + Circling Heart Bicorne(60) + Bubbling Football Helm(10) + Nuts n' Bolts Stove Pipe(10) + Strange Circling Heart Elf Esteem(15) + Burning Flames Companion(335) + Holy Grail Pool Party(30.5) + Strange Haunted Ghosts Merc's Mohawk (142.5)

12.69+60+10+10+15+335+30.5+142.5=615.69 ---> Rounding to 615 Flat

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153088409#!/compare/1518220800/1518393600

Mini's:

Infernal Flames I See You -

Sold for $25 on mp.tf on may 3rd

25/1.97 = 12.69 Keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/1116;5;u3015

Strange Circling Heart Elf Esteem

Sold for 15 keys pure + 3 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390575148#!/compare/1522454400/1522713600

Strange Haunted Ghosts Mohawk

Sold with a Scorching Little Buddy(59) + Holy Grail Pool Party(30.5) + Burning Robo Pipe(45) For a Ghastly Ghosts Jr. Team Captain(277)

(277) - (59 + 30.5 + 45) = 142.5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153088409#!/compare/1523232000/1523318400

Mini Mini:

Ghastly Ghosts Jr. Team Captain

Sold for a Aces High BOA(47.5) + Blizzardy Storm Towering Pillar of Hats(24) + Sunbeams Safe n Sound(63) + Peace Sign Nunhood(80) + Burning Bolted Birdcage(62.5)

47.5 + 24 + 63 + 80 + 62.5

=277

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153088409#!/compare/1524009600/1524096000

Mini Mini Mini:

Burning Birdcage (62.5)

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5acd53b544325a53c407bccf

Sunbeams Safe n Sound(63)

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ae5d80acf6c755e9530dd71

Credits to pigeon for everything below. Ty

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157493895#!/compare/1525651200/1525737600 ~

Haunted Phantasm Jr Conjurer's Cowl (71) + Misty Skull Backbiter's Billycock (89) + Starstorm Slumber Hermes (35) + Disco Beat Down Runner's Warm-Up (30) + Harvest Moon Burning Bandana (62) + Starstorm Insomnia Texas Slim's Dome Shine (60) + 6 keys + Sunbeams A Rather Festive Tree (93)

= 446

Micros

Phantasm Jr Cowl-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060375373#!/compare/1525046400/1525219200 ~ 71 Keys

Sold for 7 keys + Anti Freeze Front Runner (63.5)

Mini for Runner-

https://marketplace.tf/items/760;5;u69 ~ 63.5 keys

$125/1.97 = 63.45

Rounds to 63.5

Misty Cock-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263260743#!/compare/1524614400/1524787200 ~ 89

Sold for 5 keys + a Secret Tavish Crown (84)

Micro on crown-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236788328#!/compare/1525392000/1525564800 ~ 84

Sold for 5 pure + Cloudy Heavy's Rag (44) + Purple Cloud Pampered Pyro (35)

Pampered-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1523577600/1523664000 ~ 35

DBD Runner's-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241622178#!/compare/1524700800/1524787200 ~ 30

Sold with Scorching Guadalajara (60(Buyers support) + GE Backwards (I CANT FIND SHIT REEEEEE USING 90 KILL ME)

90-60 = 30

Harvest Bandana-

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139831684#!/compare/1525132800/1525219200 ~ 62

Other sales

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038816671#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600 ~ No

Feel free to waste your time

Starstorm Insomnia Texas Slim's Dome Shine

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310127340#!/compare/1522972800/1523059200

DP Nobel (23.5) + Miam Exe (36.5)

Exe-

https://marketplace.tf/items/921;5;u61 ~ 36.5

71.86/1.97 = 36.47 = 36.5

DP Nobel-

Cant find anything suing current

Sunbeams A Rather Festive Tree

https://marketplace.tf/items/341;5;u17 - 93

183.9/1.97 = 93.3

Still wondering if the 450 quicksell constitutes as an outlier. As wolfi stated past offers can help identify and outlier of which jaytee's screenshots do justice. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29502211

With this range that offer should fit right in, so wouldn't it be fine?

I was somehow lucky enough to run into a seller of the scorching muffs on firepowered just now. Sale within the last day https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068999011#!/compare/1525564800/1525824000

Oh. Whats up. Another sale for ya https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

So the sale that pretty much defines whether this suggestion is going to be accurate at all, is yours.

Giving it a rough estimate with outdated prices(the beams frag-proof added 47 pure for a GE cotton head: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400 ), it comes up to ~545, which assuming these prices were in-date, counters the low end here which has enough data points to make 450 an outlier(the scammer sale that would also roughly come up to ~600-700, depending on the searing flash of inspiration, that would make 3 sales against including 450)

We all know that there's no proper way of knowing if this sale really does counter 450 or not. EVERY SINGLE unusual in this sale is outdated, including the cotton head. So if the unusuals involved drop significantly enough, this could drop to the ~450 range, which would make this suggestion fine.

So in the end, you(Loaferman) are going to need to mini every single of these hats. Until you do that, this suggestion will stay up.

Anyone else is free to counter if they put effort into the minis for this suggestion as well, assuming this sale counters 450.

Again, why is the strange unusual ghosts mohawk below a normal unusual ghosts mohawk

Strange and normal qualities are two entirely different things. Which also means they have different sales. Hence why they have different pricing.

But why would it be less, people pay more for strange unusuals right?

Perhaps the non strange variant is overpriced. I mean the strange one has sold for less after all.

So, on the comment-section provided sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068999011#!/compare/1525564800/1525824000

Searing flash + ooz dread + demon tyrantium + GE warhood + stuff

None of those have usable sales aside from the GE warhood

https://marketplace.tf/items/30866;5;u9 ~46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1526169600/1526256000 ~30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023426952#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000 bulk

So that sale can't be used.

The other sale:

Beams frag (~120 for the sake of this suggestion) + ghosts rifle (~120) + scorch trilb (~85) + taw tipped (~33) + dbd trans (~43)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

Frag:

miami top + ~20 in taunts (~60 ish total)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360790271#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

GE madam + few keys, probably involved CSGO seeing what the seller paid himself

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1528329600/1528416000

With 47 keys for GE cotton (open suggestion at 170 which still needs research; requires a tremendous train of unclear suggestions which Ill look into)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400

Would be ~120 ish

Translator:

Sold for eldritch flame pull ~68 but has lower sellers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091986289#!/compare/1525046400/1525392000

scm I guess?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970657444#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

Dunno

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258890936#!/compare/1528848000/1529107200

37 keys + bubbles bomb (~8 based on sellers) + 1 ish in sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198446795004#!/compare/1528243200/1528416000

~46

Qsed for 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1528156800/1528243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093585253#!/compare/1527638400/1528243200

with 10 for scorching sky guy

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358470097#!/compare/1525824000/1525996800

abduct trans ~32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081012453#!/compare/1522713600/1522886400

I think 40 was a lucky QS, without further looking into I'd take that here as 40-46

Ghosts rifle:

Sold for GE bone ~45 + GE hwah (sellers at 31) +kaw eyewear (~30?) + 20 in mixed sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600

The eyewear is insanely weird. It has 3 mp sales at 74$ (~38) but two current sellers for much less. All mp sales are the same dude and 2 of them are still in a mp bot but not listed (and cant be traced to a sale) so Im skeptical.

sellers are at 24 and 30.

Other sales are untraceable except for this one:

Sold with 5 in sweets for mallard tipplers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110348172#!/compare/1528588800/1528675200

tipplers:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110348172#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600 ~17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052264884#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600 ~22

Both sold fast so meh.

So even with a range between current sellers and those weird mp datapoints it'd be ~30, making the sale ~125

Sold with ~75 in adds for a vivid KE

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1527206400/1527292800

Should be used there but supports a drop

Sellers down to 115 so on avg ~120 for the rifle will work. Can't make heads nor tails of any of the other sales.

Tipped:

seems to be 25; keys were used for that jeep

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149682389#!/compare/1527984000/1528070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1527984000/1528070400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341969000#!/compare/1527984000/1528070400

not sure tho

no idea

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195731583#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149682389#!/compare/1524441600/1524614400

hearts milk (being resold for ~25) + sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144814374#!/compare/1526688000/1526774400

~25

aussie scatter (~25) + 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005323452#!/compare/1526256000/1526428800

~28

Hearts tower (sellers 35) + a bunch of stuff (~40 ish total)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1526169600/1526256000

low sales are close to buyers and high sales are above sellers. wide mini-range of 25-40 here I guess (so 33)

Trilby:

https://marketplace.tf/items/324;5;u14

Sales at 155 and 165 -> ~80 and ~85

https://backpack.tf/item/238864756 (both here)

Misty tossle

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29571386

should cap; tossle has a sale here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095902384#!/compare/1521849600/1521936000

so ~90

buy order

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989046106#!/compare/1527897600/1527984000

Duped PE son ~61 + 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085628805#!/compare/1527897600/1527984000

PE son:

w/ 5 keys for miami snap ~66

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054517262#!/compare/1526169600/1526256000

~61

snap:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30542;5;u61 ~66 (Can be suggested, rest is scammer sales)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054517262#!/compare/1526169600/1526256000

There have been more sales on that trilb but the range here at ~80-90 seems solid. Low seller is duped

this brings the sale total with rather crude minis to ~400

I cut off some corners here to make this doable and within a reasonable margin, it should be apparent that it does NOT support excluding 450. If anything it supports the drop even more