Untouchable in my zone, watch it, don't leave him alone.

Fuck your ass cheek flows with bars sweeter than scones.

Wow this gave me a headache.

Sale #1

Sold w/:

a Miami Nights Nuke (40 keys)

for:

a Morning Glory Boxcar Bomber (115 keys, mini below)

10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077875601#!/compare/1524441600/1524787200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198227232564#!/compare/1524700800/1524787200

= ((115 + 10) - 40) = 85 keys

MG Bomber mini

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af1734fcf6c75670c2223ec = 115 keys

Sale #2

Quicksold for 89 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29630006

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081270783#!/compare/1524528000/1524614400

=89 keys

Sale #3

Sold for a Sunbeams Sky High Fly Guy (62, mini below) + 13 keys + some MvM parts

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29615112 - B/O = 110 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081270783#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127099299#!/compare/1523836800/1524528000

= 62 + 13 = 75 keys

Beams Fly High mini

Thanks Erik for his help here.

Sold for a Purple Energy Warhood (41) + Cloud 9 Infernal Impaler (21, micro below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29639140 - B/O = 70 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009927672#!/compare/1525564800/1525651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084447725#!/compare/1525564800/1525651200

= 41 + 21 = 62 keys

C9 Impaler micro

https://gyazo.com/95c04cb946d134bd66fb8cd82118daf6 = 21 keys

Sale #4

Quicksold for 88 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127099299#!/compare/1522972800/1523318400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079790396#!/compare/1523232000/1523318400

= 88 keys

Sale #5

Sold for a Purple Energy A Rather Festive Tree (40 keys, mini below) + a Scorching Flames Demoman's Fro (65 keys, mini below)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154437495#!/compare/1521849600/1522022400

= 40 + 65 = 105 keys

PE Festive Tree mini

Sold for a Cloud 9 Horrific Headsplitter (25 keys, micro below)+ Smoking Noble Amassment of Hats (15 keys, micro below)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204895665#!/compare/1520035200/1520208000

= 25 + 15 = 40 keys

C9 Headsplitter micro

Sold for 25 keys + neglible sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29623876

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066730552#!/compare/1525478400/1525564800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091887499#!/compare/1525478400/1525564800

No idea if this was a quicksale or not, because the seller could've edited the trade anytime. However, there is a seller at 27 keys on the Classifieds to support this drop.

= 25 keys

Smoking Noble micro

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256250926#!/compare/1522281600/1522368000

= 15 keys

Scorching Fro mini

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af301c944325a51691910ef = 65 keys

Sale #6

Sold for:

Vivid Plasma Hong Kong Cone

25 keys

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher (Factory New) god damn, that's a mouthful (4 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29588212 - B/O = 115 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1521676800/1521763200

~> was used to price the Vivid HKC, so I can't use it here.

Sale #7

Sold for a Green Energy Dr's Dapper Topper (97.5 keys) + Time Warp Frenchman's Beret (28 keys, mini below)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059926468#!/compare/1520726400/1520812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1520812800/1520899200

= 97.5 + 28 = 126 keys

TW Beret mini

Sold w/:

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Wrench (21 keys)

Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Results Are In Unusualifier (9 keys)

~1.5 keys worth of items

for:

a Knifestorm Gym Rat (44.5 keys)

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Minigun (18 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286453411#!/compare/1520380800/1520640000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1520553600/1520640000

= (44.5 + 18) - (21 + 9 + 5) = 28 keys

~> Complex-ish trade, but it's better than nothing.

Sale #8

Sold for a Scorching Flames Barnstormer (135 keys, was in-date at the time of the sale) + ~3 keys worth of items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050933686#!/compare/1520294400/1520380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059926468#!/compare/1519948800/1520294400

135 + 3 = 138 keys

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29614647 - 120 keys, nearly 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29633027 - 110 keys, nearly 2 weeks

Conclusion:

Sales at 75, 85, 88 (qs), 89 (qs), 105 and 126 keys. Sellers at 110 and 120 keys.

Obviously omitting the high outlier, so 126 is out of the range. Though there are quicksales, they kind of support a common trade point at 85-105 keys. I'll be excluding the 75 key sale because it looks a bit low, especially since the hat had a 110 key b/o on that trade, and the hat it was traded for has limited sales for a concrete reference. I'm still a bit stumped though, so I'd like to hear your thoughts. But for now, I'll be going with 85-105 keys. Special thanks to Midnight, Zeus and WannaBe for their help on the discord.

Additional/Supportive and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.

Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ﾉ