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Money for nothing
Using last 2 months.
Sale 1:
Sold for $34.49 on Marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/1015;5;u3007
34.49/1.98 = ~17.4
X = 17
Sale 2:
Sold for ~13 keys in pure/items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29565837 - B/O of 13
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044203779#!/compare/1522886400/1523059200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045122249#!/compare/1522972800/1523059200
X = 13
Sale 3:
Sold in ~3 days for 9 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086076383#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434701820#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200
X = 9
Sale 4:
Sold for Strange Pro. KS Grenade Launcher (~7)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090409013#!/compare/1522195200/1522454400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073825431#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400
Market on the Nade was limited, so I used bot.tf stats: https://i.imgur.com/wnpmfwr.png
X = 7
Sale 5:
Bulk for Cloud 9 Lucky Shot
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361859002#!/compare/1524009600/1524096000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159201884#!/compare/1524009600/1524182400
Sale 6:
Bulk for Infernal Flames Kazotsky
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050173215#!/compare/1521590400/1521676800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994587943#!/compare/1521331200/1521676800
Sellers:
13 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/R4icxgi.png
https://backpack.tf/item/1475592188
14 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/eumCbIi.png
https://backpack.tf/item/6058645125
20 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/wBF7ZMd.png
https://backpack.tf/item/4904355388
22 keys:
https://i.imgur.com/XlUaX0t.png
https://backpack.tf/item/1473629129
Sales at:
7
9
13
17
17 seems pretty high given the cheaper sellers, excluding 17.
7 and 9 also seem pretty low. Should be safe to exclude them given the median is pretty close to 13 here.
Going with 13 flat.