Sale 1:

Sold for Australium Stickybomb Launcher (13)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309071232#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

X = 13

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys + 10 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

X = 6.5

Sale 3:

Sold with cheap items for Burning Bootleg Base Metal Billycock

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150435517#!/compare/1523836800/1524009600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319285481#!/compare/1523836800/1524873600

Way too high, excluding.

Sale 4:

Bulk for Lantern Tippler’s Tricorne

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052984141#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090389125#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Sale 5:

Bulk for Terror-Watt Headsplitter

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090389125#!/compare/1524960000/1525046400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347694736#!/compare/1524441600/1525046400

Sellers:

20 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/1oN2T3M.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5238595171

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29638625

And a seller at $25 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30618;5;u3007

https://backpack.tf/item/5390853320

Sales at:

6.5

13

The sale at 6.5 keys took a while to sell: https://backpack.tf/item/5772586512

MsPauling bot was selling for ~7 keys before getting banned, and most likely will still be selling for that price when unbanned. Supports the drop.

https://i.imgur.com/zKLL6t9.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5374809533

Given the time it took to sell for 6.5, and the bot selling for ~7 keys (and the fact that the buyer of the sale at 13 was probably taken advantage of), I’d say it’s safe to assume 13 is the outlier here.

Going with 6.5.