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Sold for Miami Nights Noble Nickel (19):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117228591#!/compare/1525392000/1525478400
= 19 Keys
Noble:
Sold for ProKS Aus Black Box (buyers at 17.1, sellers at 17.6) + 1.5 Keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145163119#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400
= 19 Keys
Sold for Aces Headsplitter(16):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117228591#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600
= 16 Keys, outlier
Headsplitter:
Sold for Abduction Head Full of Hot Air (Seller at 16 & 16.7, taking 16):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066207210#!/compare/1526083200/1526169600
Sold for Miami Nights Lucky Shot (20):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798892497#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200
= 20 Keys
Lucky Shot:
Sold for Slumber Norsemann (sellers at 20):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1523836800/1523923200
Sold with 5 Keys for Abduction Translator (seller at 28):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798892497#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600
= 23 Keys, outlier.
Sold with a key in sweets for Unusual Flare Gun (no mini):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204122360#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000
r+ubi is willing to buy any unusual flare for 14 keys, so the true value of the flare would probably put this in the middle of the range, close to 20
Sold with 2 key sweet for Electric hat protector phononaut (mp.tf sale at 25, seller at 20):
https://imgur.com/a/KAYtr83
Fits range
Why are you calling 23 an outlier? I see nothing that could make that high.
Including 23 in the range is supported by your sale (Sold with 2 key sweet for Electric hat protector phononaut (mp.tf sale at 25, seller at 20)) If you took 25 for the mini then that sale would become 23 too.
I'd go 19 - 23 here personally.
I'm taking out 23 and 16 in order to condense the range, since including both values would only shift the price up a little bit and make things awkward.
As for the phononaut, with the seller at 20 and sale at 25 a mini of ~22 is probably more appropriate, which would put the sale at either 19 or 20, fitting the suggested price.
Appreciate the input nonetheless, if things change I'll be sure to resuggest
Idk how suggestions work but the trade was actually The Aces High Headsplitter + 2 keys for the bot dogger. https://imgur.com/a/ZE01pKY