Sale 1:

Sold for Strange Scorching Polar Bear (75)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29605436 - B/O of 70

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114764948#!/compare/1524096000/1524355200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149062538#!/compare/1524182400/1524355200

X = 70

Sale 2:

Sold for 40 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961279983#!/compare/1522022400/1522108800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114764948#!/compare/1522022400/1522108800

X = 40

Sale 3:

Sold for 40 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069813252#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112663388#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

X = 40

Sale 4:

Sold for $77.77 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/309;5;u70;strange

https://backpack.tf/item/4536451887

77.77/1.98 = ~39.3

X = 39

Sale 5:

Quicksold for 32 keys + Strange Sinner’s Shade

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149062538#!/compare/1524182400/1524355200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069813252#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

X = 32

Sale 6:

Bulk for Beams Rack

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103489234#!/compare/1521158400/1521244800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961279983#!/compare/1521072000/1521158400

Sales at:

32

39

40 (2x)

70

32 quicksold, excluding 32.

70 is a large outlier, excluding 70.

https://marketplace.tf/items/309;5;u70;strange – Seller at ~40-41 keys worth on mp.tf currently, supports the drop.

Going with 39-40.