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Revised (ty https://backpack.tf/u/76561198080310253 for finding other trades)
Sale 1: 45 keys
Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29616754
Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/6743206343
Sale 2: 20 - 28 keys, 24 key avg
Supposedly a 1:1 for a Disco Beat Down Puffy Polar Cap
Inventory History: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198422625222#!/compare/1525478400/1525651200
Item History: https://backpack.tf/item/6758013195
DBD PFC price also undetermined however
PFC Possible Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29641768 - 20 keys
Trade: http://bazaar.tf/trade/1586653 - 28 keys
PFC History: https://backpack.tf/item/6463805033
Sale 3: 30 keys
Trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29647832
Item History https://backpack.tf/item/6788476573
Screenshot https://imgur.com/a/cc2Ha6H
just looking at your 3 original sales, assuming sale values are correct, 45 is clearly an outlier compared to 24 and 30...
(this range is probably too wide)
sale 1 was bulk, unusable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1523836800/1524096000
histories not match in 2nd sale
proof of 3rd sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139899837#!/compare/1526601600/1526774400
also some sales:
not match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127045035#!/compare/1522972800/1523059200
untracable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081048453#!/compare/1525305600/1525996800
bulky
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071674964#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
qsold for 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071674964#!/compare/1525564800/1525651200
50 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128370511#!/compare/1523318400/1523404800
sold for blizzy woolen warmer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128370511#!/compare/1523059200/1523145600
not match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258264645#!/compare/1522972800/1523059200
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109997032#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200
so sales at 16,30,50,~70
sellers for 30, 33, 38(2 weeks unsold) https://imgur.com/a/W0aqqCY
buyer for 16
sale at 16 countered by buyer
sales at 50 and 70 probably are outliers due to the sellers and unsold
imo 30 flat should be fine here, but better wait for mods
that was my original suggestion but ok
pampick feel free to counter him if he doesnt resugg. Mods will take a while to look at this most likely.