Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for $24.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30918;5;u3009

24.99/1.97 = ~12.69

X = 13

Sale 2:

Sold for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165502205#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210467619#!/compare/1526688000/1526774400

X = 9.5

Sale 3:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1526688000/1526774400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151#!/compare/1526515200/1526774400

X = 8

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 6 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292156436#!/compare/1526688000/1526774400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143320939#!/compare/1526688000/1526774400

X = 6

Sale 5:

Sold for Hot Low Profile SMG

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151#!/compare/1526515200/1526774400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165502205#!/compare/1525910400/1526774400

Gonna be an outlier, excluding.

Sale 6:

Bulk for Death at Dusk Danger

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152247170#!/compare/1524960000/1525132800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164351921#!/compare/1524960000/1525046400

Sale 7:

Bulk for SBTWC Pirate Bandana

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164351921#!/compare/1525046400/1525132800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1525046400/1525132800

Sale 8:

Bulk for pure

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1525046400/1525132800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292156436#!/compare/1525046400/1525132800

Sales at:

6

8

9.5

13

No current sellers.

6 may be a little low here, excluding 6.

13 is gonna be too high, given 5 sellers on the SCM for ~10-12 keys: https://i.imgur.com/n8qISn6.png

Buyer at 10 states that they’re not buying wind effects. Excluding them.

Going with 8-9.5.