Suggestion: Haunted Ghosts Woolen Warmer at 85–97 keys

No idea if this was a quicksale or not, because the seller could've edited the trade anytime. However, there is a seller at 27 keys on the Classifieds to support this drop.

= 25 keys

Smoking Noble micro

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256250926#!/compare/1522281600/1522368000

= 15 keys

Scorching Fro mini

~~https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af301c944325a51691910ef = 65 keys~~

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af6582ecf6c75160a2aaa1f = 57 keys. Old mini was said to be too high.

Sale #6

Sold for:

Vivid Plasma Hong Kong Cone

25 keys

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Carpet Bomber Stickybomb Launcher (Factory New) god damn, that's a mouthful (4 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29588212 - B/O = 115 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1521676800/1521763200

~> was used to price the Vivid HKC, so I can't use it here.

Sale #7

Sold for a Green Energy Dr's Dapper Topper (97.5 keys) + Time Warp Frenchman's Beret (28 keys, mini below)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059926468#!/compare/1520726400/1520812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1520812800/1520899200

= 97.5 + 28 = 126 keys

TW Beret mini

Sold w/:

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Wrench (21 keys)

Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Results Are In Unusualifier (9 keys)

~1.5 keys worth of items

for:

a Knifestorm Gym Rat (44.5 keys)

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Minigun (18 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286453411#!/compare/1520380800/1520640000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1520553600/1520640000

= (44.5 + 18) - (21 + 9 + 5) = 28 keys

~> Complex-ish trade, but it's better than nothing.

Sale #8

Sold for a Scorching Flames Barnstormer (135 keys, was in-date at the time of the sale) + ~3 keys worth of items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050933686#!/compare/1520294400/1520380800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059926468#!/compare/1519948800/1520294400

135 + 3 = 138 keys

Sale #9

Tesla Coil Deep Cover Operator (55 keys) + Starstorm Slumber Coldsnap Cap (46 keys, mini below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29633027 - B/O = 95 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077875601#!/compare/1526688000/1526860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120495102#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800

= 55 + 46 = 101 keys

B/O = 95 keys

Tesla DCO mini

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29659501 - b/o of 55 keys

https://i.imgur.com/yiDaISY.png

x2 at 55 keys

Taking this as 55 keys.

Slumber Coldsnap mini

Sold for a Circling Peace Sign Modest Pile of Hat (31 keys) + 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195731583#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000

Taking this as 46 keys.

Sale #10

Sold for a Duped Stare From Beyond Falkirk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236788328#!/compare/1527033600/1527120000

~> Only other sale for the Falkirk, unfortunately, has a hat that doesn't have any recent sales. So this sale should be used to update that.

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29614647 - 120 keys, nearly 1 month

~~http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29633027 - 110 keys, nearly 2 weeks~~ It's sale #9 now.

Conclusion:

Sales at 75, 85, 88 (qs), 89 (qs), 95, 97, 126 and 138 keys. Seller at 120 keys.

Obviously omitting the high outlier, so 126 is out of the range. Though there are quicksales, they kind of support a common trade point at 85-97 keys. I'll be excluding the 75 key sale because it looks a bit low, especially since the hat had a 110 key b/o on that trade, and the hat it was traded for has limited sales for a concrete reference. I'm still a bit stumped though, so I'd like to hear your thoughts. But for now, I'll be going with 85-197 keys. Special thanks to Midnight, Zeus and WannaBe for their help on the discord.

Additional/Supportive and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.

Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ﾉ