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Steaming Brainiac Hairpiece
New price: 15-16 keys
[proof below]
SALE #1 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092964413#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600
Sold for a Circling TF Logo Data Mining Light + 7 keys. Seems rather high, considering the Hairpiece has sellers at ~16-18
SALE #2 = 17 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1525564800/1525651200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089754977#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000
Sold for 17 keys. (the stormy festivizer does NOT match, the keys DO match).
SALE #3 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303813920#!/compare/1526860800/1526947200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059021831#!/compare/1526860800/1526947200
Likely quicksold, and then used the keys to buy the c9 hat. You can see some of the keys in the buyer's backpack matching with the history of the c9 hat. Regardless, sold within a day so invalid.
SALE #4 = invalid
https://marketplace.tf/items/590;5;u36
Sold for $24 ( / $1,98 ) = 12 keys. Low, countered by lots of buyers. Invalid.
SALE #5 = 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
https://backpack.tf/item/3064963096
Sold for 15 keys + 14 ref, which is rounded to 16 keys.
SALE #6 = 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1526083200/1526169600
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
https://backpack.tf/item/3064963096
Sold for 16 keys.
SALE #7 = 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1523836800/1523923200
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
https://backpack.tf/item/658195138
Sold for 16 keys.
SALE #8 = 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524009600/1524096000
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
https://backpack.tf/item/658195138
Sold for 16 keys.
SALE #9 = 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
Sold for 15 keys + 6 ref.
SALE #10 = 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
Sold for 15 + 6 ref.
SALE #11 = 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
Sold for 14 keys + 20 ref = 15 keys.
SALE #12 = 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200
https://gyazo.com/ac57825268e94d1ce7a48f3c001212f2
Sold for 15 keys (doesn't appear, dates match).
SALE #13 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257905663#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004386287#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
Untrace.
SALE #14 = 17 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802878905#!/compare/1525219200/1525305600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257905663#!/compare/1525219200/1525305600
Sold for 15 keys + 4 TOD tickets = ~17 keys
SALE #15 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802878905#!/compare/1525219200/1525305600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106511423#!/compare/1525219200/1525305600
Untrace.
SALE #16 = invalid
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060375373#!/compare/1525219200/1525305600
Bulk.
SALE #17 = 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1527033600/1527120000
https://gyazo.com/e83c79eaccabd47ab6a9bcc617aa5308
Sold for 16 keys.
SALE #18 = 15 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198807582399#!/compare/1527206400/1527292800
Sold to R+ubi who previously had a buy order up at ~15 keys ( can be seen here: https://gyazo.com/1317e4b97ed77109951b81c2ff873e9e )
SUMMARY
Sales: 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 16 / 16 / 16 / 17 / 17 keys
Sellers: 15 / 16 / 16 / 16 / 38 keys
https://gyazo.com/cdc20491886c24e3c23eb27a324266ee
With the constant stream of sellers at 16 keys and atleast 2 matured listings at 16 keys at the moment, I’d say 17 is an outlier. Going with 15-16 keys.
We let the pot stir to look for more sales, and no more at 17 have popped up since. Looks like you were right, Erik. Nice work.