Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 7 keys after a ~24 hour hold (ID’s match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017780806#!/compare/1526428800/1526601600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057787849 - backpack wasn’t scanned prior to the trade.

X = 7

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1525478400/1525564800

Buyer?: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198809718054#!/compare/1525478400/1525564800

https://backpack.tf/item/5505480058 - buyer doesn’t show up here, but it’s likely that the keys came from the buyer linked.

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/skxPGeg.png

X = 6

Sale 3:

Sold for 5 keys + 25 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138133847#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/skxPGeg.png

X = 6

Sale 4:

Sold for 5 keys + 25 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1526428800/1526688000

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/skxPGeg.png

X = 6

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090389125#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/skxPGeg.png

X = 5.5

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060489844#!/compare/1525305600/1525910400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/skxPGeg.png

X = 5.5

Sale 7:

Sold with ~1.5 keys in pure/items for Smoking Strontium Stove Pipe

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122380471#!/compare/1526256000/1526342400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017780806#!/compare/1526256000/1526342400

Not comfortable using this sale, especially without a B/O.

Sale 8:

Sold for $23.80 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30816;5;u3004

Large outlier, considering current sellers/sales.

Sale 9:

Sold for painted junk

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301543332#!/compare/1526601600/1526774400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194316734#!/compare/1526601600/1526774400

Shouldn’t use sales like this.

Sellers:

8 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/OsFrGEk.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6254014366

https://backpack.tf/item/6571071502

9 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/OGSCBJ6.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5185067687

10 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/5TXdGXC.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5411722674

13 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/mHzlmHm.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5221995807

24 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29486191

Sales at:

5.5 (2x)

6 (3x)

7

https://i.imgur.com/xUUn4m2.png - young buyer at 6, keeping 6 in the range as that’s where most of the sales are at, and there’s only one sale higher than 6 (that isn’t a large outlier). Will exclude 5.5, however.

Going with 6-7.