Sale 1:

Sold for Searing Plasma Hat With No Name (41.5) + Orbiting Fire Master’s Yellow Belt (Buyers at ~18)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29658273 - B/O of 54

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137566942#!/compare/1527984000/1528070400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826120020#!/compare/1527984000/1528070400

X = 54

Sale 2:

Sold for Vivid Blast Defense (Suggestion at 17) + Green Confetti Head Hedge (Mini at 11.5 below) + Steaming Samur-Eye (Suggestion at 9.5) + 14 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29634397 - B/O of 55

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141054773#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038110320#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800

X = 52

Sales 3 & 4:

Sold for $98 and $78 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/314;5;u14

98/1.97 = ~49.7

78/1.97 = ~39.6

X = 50

X = 40

Sale 5:

Sold for Miami Nights Jumper’s Jeepcap (Suggestion at 19.5) + Disco Beat Down Milkman (Suggestion at 24) + 5 keys

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046580198#!/compare/1526515200/1526601600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137566942#!/compare/1526256000/1526601600

X = 49

Sale 6:

Sold for 45 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1526256000/1526342400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079583278#!/compare/1526256000/1526342400

X = 45

Sale 7:

Sold for 44 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1521763200/1521849600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200277421#!/compare/1521763200/1521849600

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/hIE98eE.png

X = 44

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 40 keys + 18 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098563620#!/compare/1522368000/1522627200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1522540800/1522627200

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/hIE98eE.png

X = 41

Sale 9:

Sold to a bot for 40 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200277421#!/compare/1526342400/1526515200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358337981#!/compare/1526428800/1526515200

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/hIE98eE.png

X = 40

Sale 10:

Sold for 40 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211271837#!/compare/1523750400/1524182400

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/hIE98eE.png

X = 40

Sale 11:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 40 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126114757#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1524355200/1524441600

X = 40

Sale 12:

Sold for 39 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126114757#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

X = 39

Sale 13:

Sold for 38 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083029837#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400

X = 38

Sale 14: (Dupe)

Sold for 36 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074178367#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141054773#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

https://i.imgur.com/o16gbrU.png - buyer confirms

X = 36

Sale 15:

Bulk-ish for Beams Wetworks

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029559186#!/compare/1527206400/1527292800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961067008#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400

Was used on the Wetworks, can’t use here.

Sale 16:

Sold for 32 keys + 6 pairs of regular buds (~11 total) + Voices From Below buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29605713 - No B/O

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1526083200/1526256000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065885999#!/compare/1526256000/1527638400

Couldn’t get a mini on the buds, doubt it’ll end up mattering too much here.

Sale 17: (Dupe)

Sold for Codex Phononaut + 3 keys?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196107719#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074178367#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

I feel like more keys would’ve been involved. If not, the sale’s a large outlier.

Sale 18: (Dupe)

Sold for clean scorching larrikin robin

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141054773#!/compare/1524614400/1524700800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1524614400/1524700800

https://i.imgur.com/o16gbrU.png - seller confirms

Can’t use here.

Sale 19:

Sold for Morning Glory Honcho’s Headgear

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29605713 - No B/O

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1524182400/1524268800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101725605#!/compare/1524182400/1524268800

Gonna be pretty high without a B/O, excluding this one.

Sale 20:

Sold for Duped Burning Tippler’s Tricorne

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29665928 - B/O of 52

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101725605#!/compare/1527724800/1528070400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053747026#!/compare/1527638400/1527724800

No mini available.

Vivid Blast:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b16431acf6c7566e05d238c

Steaming Samur-Eye:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b164dd244325a25fd70ddcd

Green Confetti Head Hedge:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af858c644325a47532ebc3d - refer to my comment

Miami Jeep:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b16afa844325a46567321eb

Disco Milk:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b16b91a44325a46c475dc24

Sellers:

55 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/trJ9EQ8.png

https://backpack.tf/item/963482200

https://backpack.tf/item/207545622

Sales at:

36 (Duped)

38

39

40 (4x)

41

44

45

49

50

52

54

https://i.imgur.com/toT4mmU.png - Buyer at 40, excluding sales below 40.

Pure sales range from 38-45, so I don’t want to stray too far from them. Gonna set the high-end with the marketplace sale at 50 and excluding anything higher than that.

Going with 40-50.