Those aren't bullet holes.

Resuggesting due to Erik finding more proof.

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050702987#!/compare/1526515200/1526601600

Bulk, excluded.

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1525305600/1525392000

Dupe sold for 14 keys. Buy orders are under that, excluded as a quicksell.

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407561885#!/compare/1525046400/1525219200

Sold with ~6 keys worth of sweets for a Steaming Modest Pile of Hat (20.5). Pile is 19 after the mini, making the sale 13 keys. Under buy orders, excluded.

Mini for pile:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186929822#!/compare/1528329600/1528416000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198245624680#!/compare/1528329600/1528416000

Sold for ~19 keys.

Bot.tf sales: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/438786285222494208/455353951164825611/blyad.png

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1523656800/1523743200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1525471200/1525557600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1527112800/1527199200

Sold thrice for ~19 keys.

We've got 19, 19, 19, and 19. Going with that.

Bot.tf sales

https://gyazo.com/a0499f0c45f3543f02ca4cb6d8b01d1e

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1526335200/1526421600

Sold for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1527717600/1527804000

Dupe sold for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1521673200/1521759600

Sold for 16 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524348000/1524434400

Sold for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1525644000/1525730400

Sold for 15 keys.

Sellers & buyers

https://gyazo.com/6529bc28535e1fc98b038fcca8104d86

Unsold at 15 for 1 month.

Section Contributed by Erik

https://backpack.tf/item/1262437497

The 16 sale sale is nearly outdated.

https://gyazo.com/0ef68c4f095b3a3d351bca318af78f31

Seller at 15 keys for 2 months.

Sine 15 seems to be selling slowly at the moment and the fact that the 16 key sale is nearly outdated makes me think that it might be an outlier.

More sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400221373#!/compare/1523404800/1523750400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1523750400/1523836800

Bulk.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1521327600/1521414000

https://gyazo.com/a6c6f26ff442cccdcc33be16fc702ad5

Bought for ~15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385940902#!/compare/1522965600/1523052000

https://gyazo.com/a6c6f26ff442cccdcc33be16fc702ad5

Bought for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1523397600/1523484000

https://gyazo.com/a6c6f26ff442cccdcc33be16fc702ad5

Bought for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1524348000/1524434400

https://gyazo.com/a6c6f26ff442cccdcc33be16fc702ad5

Bought for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1525730400/1525816800

https://gyazo.com/a6c6f26ff442cccdcc33be16fc702ad5

Bought for 15 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1523836800/1523923200

Appears to be bulk?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347059612#!/compare/1526860800/1526947200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094666113#!/compare/1526860800/1527033600

Sold for 15 keys.

Summary

We've got 15, 15, 15 (duped), 15, and 16.

Erik: With such a large amount of sales at 15 keys and only 1 very old sale (goes outdated in 2 weeks) at 16 keys, that also gets countered by a 2 month old seller at 15 keys, I'm inclined to say that 15 keys flat is better here.

Conclusion: Final price will be 15 keys.

Thanks to Erik and Midnight Lyrics!