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Circling Peace Sign Noble Nickel Amassment of Hats (event mini for Blizzardy Storm Federal Casemaker)
Sale 1: 13 keys pure + ~2.7 keys sweets --> ~15.7 keys; rounding to 16
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213917739#!/compare/1522886400/1523059200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259369182#!/compare/1522972800/1523059200
Sale 2: Sold for Miami Nights Pugilist's Protector (13) + Electric Hat Protector A Head Full of Hot Air +Mega Strike Taunt: The Jumping Jack (7.75) + ~5 keys in items; caps at 23 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259369182#!/compare/1523145600/1523318400
B/O: 23 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29612255
Even without Hat Protector is is 25.5 so easily caps at b/o
Head full of hot air bot.tf sales: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/442777090576613397/457136128785645570/758347b3f68b2369255c46998984ae04.png (credits Joxu)
Sale 3: Sold together with ~4 keys for Terror-Watt Noble Amassment of Hats (19.5) --> 15.5; rounding to 16
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394929555#!/compare/1523577600/1523664000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259098579#!/compare/1523577600/1523664000
Sale 4: Sold for Starstorm Slumber Noble Amassment of Hats
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198324553743#!/compare/1523577600/1524096000
Has buyers at 21.X --> high outlier given the unsolds at 19.
Sale 5: Bulk for Blizzardy Storm Federal Casemaker
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394929555#!/compare/1526601600/1526774400
Sale 6: Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253174544#!/compare/1522886400/1524268800
Sellers at 19 keys; buyers at 17 and 14. https://i.imgur.com/z4i3Qry.png
Sales at: 16, 16, 23, (+Starstorm Slumber Noble Amassment of Hats which is an outlier)
Suggesting range from 16 to 23, despite one buyer at 17. 23 flat wouldn't work due to unsolds.
New sale happened just now: 19 keys pure (credits to Erik)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985417989#!/compare/1528588800/1529020800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341039710#!/compare/1528934400/1529020800
Took 9 days to sell.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814345631#!/compare/1522108800/1522195200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092540896#!/compare/1522108800/1522195200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29594809 - B/O 18 keys
Sold for ana Orbiting Planets Soldier's Soldier's Slope Scopers + 6 keys + 0.5 in metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1525910400/1525996800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093432801#!/compare/1525478400/1525996800
Orbiting Planets Soldier's Slope Scopers sold here for 14 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143969056#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000
Along 6 keys for a Disco Beat Down Baron von Havenaplane (~20.5) = 14.5 keys.
So the sale above will likely cap at 18 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985417989#!/compare/1528588800/1529020800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341039710#!/compare/1528934400/1529020800
Sold for 19 keys.
In sale 4, the sweets are actually closer to 15 keys.
So sales at 15 / 16 / 18 / 19 / 23 keys
The 16 key sale was full pure and it later resold after a day for 30 keys in stuff (sale 2, capped at 23 key B/O), so I wouldn't be surprised if this was a quicksale. The 15 key sale (tw noble), was higher priced at the time. The seller is young as well. I think 18-23 keys might be a better range here rahter than 16-23 keys, seeing as how there's now a pure sale at 19 and another sale at 18ish. <18 also gets countered by the buyer at 17 keys. You can also choose to exclude that 18 key sale (since it's 2.5 months old) and base your low end on the pure sale. Both ranges would probably work here.