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Resuggesting!
Sale 1) Sold + ~1.5 Keys of Items for a Circling TF Logo Elf Esteem (9.25 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093275869#!/compare/1519948800/1520035200
Low outlier.
Elf Mini
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b0e5002cf6c75138d72fcae - 9.25 Keys
Sale 2) Sold for 8 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353286168#!/compare/1522281600/1525737600
Low outlier.
Sale 3) Bulk sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198398063696#!/compare/1525651200/1525737600
Sale 4) Sold for 8 Keys + 3.11 Refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000
Low outlier.
Sale 5) Sold for $18 when Keys were ~$1.96 each
https://marketplace.tf/items/436;5;u7
18 / 1.96 = 9.18, which rounds to 9 Keys
Taking 8 - 9