Blizzardly Storm Law

Previous Suggestion 2 weeks ago

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b381b4dcf6c75757370cff3

Made some changes to it as I included quicksells and one used sale which didn't affect anything. Thanks to Theo for pointing out the quicksales

This is a long one compared to the other law suggestions I made

Sellers/Buyer

https://imgur.com/a/DCZRRRP

Sellers 90-100 / Buyer @ 55

Seller unsold @ 90 for 2 months supports drop

Sale 1: 1:1'd Sunbeams Old Guadajara (automatically excluding just with sellers @ 40 keys for guad)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155320889#!/compare/1521072000/1521158400

Sale 2: bulk for knifestorm modest (excluding)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121929211#!/compare/1520553600/1520640000

Sale 3: Bubbling Exquisite Rack + Green Confetti Stainless Pot + Isotope Festivized Specialized Killstreak Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (Battle Scarred)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362185176#!/compare/1523318400/1523404800

Mini for rack: $69

https://marketplace.tf/items/339;5;u34

$69 / 1.95 = 35.38 rounding to 35

Taking 35k for mini

Mini for G. Fetti Pot: $26

https://marketplace.tf/items/98;5;u6/Green%20Confetti%20Stainless%20Pot

26 / 1.95 = 13.33 rounding to 13 keys

Due to 2 unsolds @ 11.5 keys for 10 days, I’m making it 11.5-13k making it ~12 keys

Taking 12 keys for mini

Mini for rocket: $74.84

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Aqua%20Marine%20Rocket%20Launcher%20(Battle%20Scarred)

74.84 / 2.4 = 31.18 rounding to 31

There’s a sale for $114 which is a clear outlier when you look at the sale history of the item.

Taking 31 keys for mini

35 + 12 + 31 = 78 keys

Rounding to 80

Taking 80 keys

Sale 4: 65 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362185176#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600

Sale 5: 69 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809#!/compare/1523577600/1523750400

Sale 6: bulk for circling heart VV (excluding)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1526860800/1526947200

Sale 7: bulk for PE rack (excluding)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800

Sale 8: untrace (excluding)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325#!/compare/1528416000/1528502400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010059325#!/compare/1528416000/1528502400

History of 2 unusuals don’t match

Sale 9: The Ooze Brim-Full Of Bullets + Cauldron Bubbles Soldered Sensei

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061921663#!/compare/1528502400/1528588800

Mini for sensei

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b2068d0cf6c750243454b48

Taking 85 keys

Mini for brim: 41 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122604075#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600

Taking 41 keys

85 + 41 = 126 rounding to 125

Taking 125 keys

Sale 10: 1:1’d with Green Energy Antarctic Eyewear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094281531#!/compare/1528588800/1528675200

Mini for eyewear

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b317ee2cf6c75027d2397f9

Taking 70.5 for mini rounding to 70

Taking 70 keys for sale

Sale 11: Cloud 9 Tipped Lid + Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Stickybomb Launcher (22k)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084438984#!/compare/1528934400/1529107200

Mini for tipped lid: $135

https://marketplace.tf/items/30425;5;u58

Sale is 4 months old but the other sale is at quicksale price so im taking this

135 / 1.95 = 69.23 rounding to 69

Taking 91 keys for sale

Sale 12: DUPED Vivid Plasma Salty Dog + ~5 keys in sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379587110#!/compare/1529798400/1529884800

Mini for salty: $90

https://marketplace.tf/items/611;5;u16/Vivid%20Plasma%20Salty%20Dog

90 / 1.95 = ~46

Can’t trace the history of the marketplace sale one but this should be excluded nonetheless with the quickbuyer @ 55k

Taking 51 keys for sale

Sale 13: Obvious shark with overpriced unusual taunts (excluding)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327807801#!/compare/1525132800/1525219200

Sale 14: 57 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322876605#!/compare/1526083200/1526169600

Sale 15: Sold w/ ~10k in items for Haunted Ghosts Brown Bomber (EXCLUDING since it's being used for the bomber's suggestion)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339336870#!/compare/1525392000/1525478400

Sale 16: untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014273034#!/compare/1523923200/1524182400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115062041#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400

Sale 17: Duped Something Burning This Way Comes Pardner's Pompadour + 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014273034#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272881838#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200

You can see that the taunt was not included because it was quickly bought with the 5 keys he included in the trade. The history of the keys and taunt match.

Mini for DUPED pompadour: Tesla Coil Coldsnap Cap (indate @ 64k) + 5 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117090444#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600

Taking 69 keys for mini

Taking 74 keys for sale

Sale 18: bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339336870#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800

Sale 19: Sold w/ ~7k in items and Strange Ancient Codex Universal Translator for Neutron Star Crone’s Dome

Not calling this bulk since the adds were a small part of the trade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339336870#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800

Mini for strange variant of ancient codex universal: 14 pure + earbuds (1.65) + ~1k in hats

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1529625600/1529712000

Taking 16.65keys rounding to 17 keys for mini

Mini for crone’s: 105 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1529712000/1529798400

105 - 24 = 81 keys

Rounding 80

Taking 80 keys for sale

Sale 20: untrace. Histories of keys and unusuals do not match each other

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203783615#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600

Sale 21: probably some scammer alts i dunno. No sales on the last three owners

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400502603#!/compare/1529107200/1529366400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814362283#!/compare/1529366400/1529798400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141753331#!/compare/1529020800/1529107200

Okay! So valid sales we have are 51, 57, 65, 69, 70, 74, 80, 80, 91, and 125

Excluding 51 and 57 as the qbuyer @ 55 counter them

Excluding 91 and 125 as they are outliers

Sales we have now are 65, 69, 70, 74, 80, 80

Excluding 65 and 69 as they were 30% off and sold within two days

Sales left are 70, 74, 80 (x2)

Taking range 70-80 as sale @ 74 supports price

If I missed any sales or you have any feedback to give me, please do so!

Thanks!