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Squad 3, because Half-Life 3!
Sale #1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069559160#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600
Sold for: 19 keys
Sale #2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1526601600/1526688000
Sold for: 23 keys
Sale #3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107260155#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1530748800/1530921600
Sold for: 17 keys
Sale #4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1525305600/1525392000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1525305600/1525392000
Sold for: 17 keys and 1 rec
https://marketplace.tf/items/30862;5;u11
mp.tf sales @ 55.86 & 40
55.86$ : (2018-06-15) $1.94 = 28.79k, taking 29k.
40$ : (2018-07-06) $2.00 = 20k
29k seems a high compared to all the other sales, excluding.
Proposed Price: 17 - 23 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171312782#!/compare/1527292800/1527379200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1527292800/1527379200
https://gyazo.com/7e640214ec52ad8464ecf70e9d33a1bc
The person who paid 23 keys dumped it on a bot for 13 keys just a few days later. I would probably not use this sale here.
Not sure if I'd use that $40 marketplace.tf sale either. It got bought earlier for nearly $16 more. It sold for $40 within 3 days according to https://backpack.tf/item/6769876286
Other sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098096360#!/compare/1530835200/1532131200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107260155#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600
Better used there.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1525651200/1525737600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098096360#!/compare/1525651200/1525737600
~30ish in downgrades. No B/O apparently, so this would be a bit high.
I'd go with 17-19 keys.
Only good reasons for somebody to dump their unusuals into a bot a few days later, might have been for a cash-out or in dire need for pure, I feel that I should include the 23 keys even after that.
In cases like this the sale usually gets excluded because the user either made a trading mistake or was burning pure. In either case, it doesn't reflect what this unusual can actually sell for.
If it got resold for maybe a key or two less after a while it wouldn't be a big issue, but here it resold for half of what he paid (bought for 23; sold for 13) within a matter of days, thus likely implying the user indeed made a trading mistake. I would still exclude that sale but feel free to ask for a second opinion.
https://gyazo.com/1dfd40cebcf40cef28602b79609526af - actually the B/O was 23 keys on the 30 keys in downgrades sale.
This leaves us with sales at 17 / 17 / 19 / 20 / 23 / (23, but got dumped on a bot) / 29 keys.
Looking at previous B/O's and the market here I'd say 29 keys is high. Though the suggested range is fine after all due to the new B/O cap.