Using last month.

Sales 1-4:

Sold for $15.99, $16 (2x) and $19.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/1109;5;u3005

Could only trace 1 item’s history

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-22

15.99/1.95 = ~8.2

https://backpack.tf/item/4807958994 - No outpost

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-29

16/1.97 = ~8.12

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-07

16/1.89 = ~8.47

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-12

19.99/1.89 = ~10.58

X = 11

X = 8.5

X = 8 (2x)

Sale 5:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1531872000/1531958400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130270161#!/compare/1531872000/1531958400

https://backpack.tf/item/4808273950

X = 8

Sale 6:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093145483#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

https://backpack.tf/item/3503289433

X = 8

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 12 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121040682#!/compare/1533513600/1533600000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1533427200/1533513600

https://backpack.tf/item/6697772667

Only the 12 ref shows up, though I doubt bot.tf is wrong here with that in mind - https://i.imgur.com/U9fxKVW.png

X = 5.5

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050930436#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

https://backpack.tf/item/5845632419

Not all the ref is there, but it’s close enough https://i.imgur.com/U9fxKVW.png

X = 5.5

Sale 9:

Bulk for SGG Squeezebox

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093145483#!/compare/1533686400/1534204800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

This sale is listed as a purchase on the bot.tf stats page.

Sale 10:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 4 keys + 1 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814994138#!/compare/1533600000/1533772800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1533513600/1533600000

Given that items were bought later on that day, I don’t doubt that there was more involved, that was later spent on other items. Calling this sale untraceable.

Untraceable bot.tf sales

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=1109&q=5&ef=Fountain+of+Delight&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0

https://i.imgur.com/U9fxKVW.png

Listed as a 5 key and 12 ref purchase:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198193606823#!/compare/1532476800/1532908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1532563200/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/item/4458723902

Listed as an 8 key sale:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/item/5845632419

2 pairs of 8 keys there, but the buyer’s name doesn’t appear on any of the keys. This sale may be usable once the buyer’s backpack is scanned again, assuming they don’t trade it away before it’s scanned.

in the last 30 days, there were 5 bot.tf transactions. 3 of these sales occupy Sales 7-9, and 2 are untraceable.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/3r9vyQd.png

7 keys:

https://backpack.tf/item/6645101669

8 keys:

https://backpack.tf/item/3503289433

~8.45 keys:

https://backpack.tf/item/4694632741

~9.6 keys:

https://backpack.tf/item/4458723902

Sales at:

5.5 (2x)

8 (4x)

8.5

11.

Keeping 5.5, as it appears to be a common trading point, and the next highest sale we have is higher than one of the sellers too, so excluding it would cause more problems here.

Excluding 8.5 and higher, due to the 2 sellers for cheaper, as well as the month-unsold at ~8.45 keys.

Going with 5.5-8.

Seller at 8 keys sold for 8 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850382378#!/compare/1534204800/1534291200

https://backpack.tf/item/3503289433