Sale 1:

Sold with a key and a cosmetic for a Max’s Head (~18.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253093948#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240537922#!/compare/1533686400/1534204800

https://backpack.tf/item/6886334718

https://scrap.tf/auctions/38E0A5 - Credit to AJ

X = 17

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29722171 - B/O of 19

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253093948#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

https://backpack.tf/item/6886334718

X = 15

Sale 3:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024925599#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054758757#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/item/6886334718

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b7d0c99cf6c750a1d1f931e#comment-5b7d35dc44325a718f72f874 - Seller’s confirmation here

X = 13

Sale 4:

Bulk for Kill-a-Watt Brotherhood of Arms

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418244311#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114782270#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

https://backpack.tf/item/6886334718

Sale 5:

Bulk for Strange Stormy Merc’s Mohawk

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114782270#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024925599#!/compare/1534377600/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/item/6886334718

Sale 6:

Bulk for Poisoned Shadows Brotherhood of Arms

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053747026#!/compare/1528848000/1528934400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285887364#!/compare/1528848000/1528934400

https://backpack.tf/item/2304094563

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/tWfvqg7.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6997250332 - 17 keys

https://i.imgur.com/UU0HOdh.png - ~17.4 keys (Scrap.tf)

https://backpack.tf/item/5726096414 - 27 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532476800/1532563200 - Obtained ~26th July (Scrap.tf)

Sales at:

13

15

17

13 went to a buy order, excluding.

Considering the sale at 15 sold for a fair bit less than their B/O, and scrap.tf is currently paying 16+ for anything with a low-end of 23, I’d say this is a bit of an outlier.

https://i.imgur.com/prORa8W.png

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Data%20Mining%20Light/Tradable/Craftable/62

Keeping 15, as scrap cannot currently buy for 16, as they already own one in the bot. Sale at 13 would support a larger drop anyways.

Going with 15-17.