Sale 1:

Sold with cheap cosmetic for Steaming Punk’s Pomp (27)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117149690#!/compare/1529884800/1529971200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070266530#!/compare/1529884800/1529971200

https://backpack.tf/item/6699651252

X = 27

Sale 2:

Sold for 24 keys + Schadenfreude

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112820972#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078127338#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

https://backpack.tf/item/6515951009

X = 25

Sale 3:

Sold for $44.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30964;5;u62

https://backpack.tf/item/6548072971 - No outpost

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-06-07 - 44.99/1.93 = ~23.31

X = 23

Sale 4:

Sold for Miami Nights Polar Bear (Mini at 13.5 below) + 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29714194 - B/O of 20

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286257338#!/compare/1532563200/1532649600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995221829#!/compare/1532649600/1532736000

X = 19

Sale 5:

Quicksold with Doublecross-Comm for 17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189611409#!/compare/1530316800/1530403200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073823378#!/compare/1530316800/1530403200

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

X = 17

Other Sales:

#1

Bulk for Morning Glory Burglerre + items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087448314#!/compare/1529020800/1529107200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198332539#!/compare/1529020800/1529107200

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

#2

Bulk for Lantern Brainiac

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073823378#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068986721#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

#3

Bulk for more stuff

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068986721#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085116555#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

#4

Bulk for Miami KE

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085116555#!/compare/1531008000/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331167728#!/compare/1531008000/1531094400

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

#5

Bulk for Scorching Guadalajara

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331167728#!/compare/1531094400/1531267200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079583278#!/compare/1530921600/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

#6

Bulk for Circling Heart Maddendoktor

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079583278#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286257338#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

#7

Bulk for Burning Polar Bear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1529884800/1529971200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117149690#!/compare/1529884800/1529971200

https://backpack.tf/item/6699651252

#8

Untraceable, sold to scrap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070266530#!/compare/1529971200/1530057600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1529971200/1530057600

https://backpack.tf/item/6699651252

#9

Bought from scrap along with another hat, can’t remember what the B/O was for the polar bear.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1530057600/1530144000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1530057600/1530144000

https://backpack.tf/item/6699651252

#10

Sold with 5 keys for Strange DBD Polar Bear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326910218#!/compare/1528675200/1528761600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112820972#!/compare/1528588800/1528675200

https://backpack.tf/item/6515951009

Should be used on the strange one.

#11

Sold with Purple Confetti Peak for Neutron Star KE

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189611409#!/compare/1530144000/1530316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198332539#!/compare/1530144000/1530316800

https://backpack.tf/item/6925940082

Using on the Peak

Miami Nights Polar Bear Mini:

Sales 1 & 2:

Sold for $36 and $24 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30964;5;u61

https://backpack.tf/item/6993607527 - No outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/6812582510 - No outpost

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-11 - 36/1.87 = ~19.25

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-11 - 24/1.95 = ~12.31

X = 19

X = 12

Sale 3:

Sold with 13 keys + ~2 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150783829#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040131408#!/compare/1533254400/1533427200

https://backpack.tf/item/6754816307

X = 15

And an aged seller at 15:

https://i.imgur.com/xw00mZo.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6973589011

Excluding 19, taking 12-15 (13.5).

Sellers:

25 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/JzuP8u8.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6699651252

https://backpack.tf/item/6549275597

[u]Sales at:[u/

17

19

23

25

27

Sellers at 25 are several months unsold, excluding 27. Keeping 25 though, as it’s pretty much a full pure sale.

17 quicksold, excluding 17.

Going with 19-25.