Using last 2 months, due to the abundance of sales here.

Sale 1:

Sold with a cheap cosmetic for 7 keys + ~6 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377165880#!/compare/1532476800/1532908800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280738518#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/item/4640047165

X = 13

Sales 2-5:

Sold for $21.90 4 times

https://marketplace.tf/items/30662;5;u94

https://backpack.tf/item/4268257099 - No outpost

Couldn’t find other histories

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-05 - $21.9 / $1.99 = 11.01 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-18 - $21.9 / $1.93 = 11.35 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-27 - $21.9 / $1.95 = 11.23 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-10 - $21.9 / $1.87 = 11.71 keys

X = 12

X = 11 (3x)

Sale 6:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143710298#!/compare/1532822400/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/item/7021264589

X = 10

Sale 7:

Sold for 9 keys + ~1 key in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133814282#!/compare/1533513600/1533686400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232224016#!/compare/1533513600/1533686400

https://backpack.tf/item/7007316782

X = 10

Sale 8:

Sold with 2 keys for Cloud 9 Prancer’s Pride (13)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29727399 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062946293#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127412813#!/compare/1531785600/1532995200

X = 10 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 9:

Sold for 9 keys (ID’s match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277050214#!/compare/1533859200/1534636800

https://backpack.tf/item/6602413820

X = 9

Sale 10:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060374478#!/compare/1532563200/1532822400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350011940#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/item/6383626264

X = 9

Sale 11:

Sold for 9 keys + Duelling Minigame

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260988290#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424111121#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/4216995351

X = 9

Sale 12:

Sold for 8 keys + 30 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1531526400/1531612800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239903536#!/compare/1527379200/1531612800

https://gyazo.com/477b3da38f6d063696fa82cb9ab46047

https://backpack.tf/item/4914818862

Only 30 ref match. That being said, I don’t doubt the bot.tf stats here.

X = 9

Sale 13:

Sold to scrap.tf for 8 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220665888#!/compare/1531440000/1531612800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531526400/1531612800

https://backpack.tf/item/6935997290

X = 8.5

Sale 14:

Sold for 8 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127412813#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070561028#!/compare/1532908800/1533081600

https://backpack.tf/item/6383626264

X = 8.5

Sale 15:

Bought from scrap for 8 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

https://backpack.tf/item/4268257099

X = 8.5

Sale 16:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100807953#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216937659#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

https://backpack.tf/item/4358650910

X = 8

Sale 17:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148777493#!/compare/1532390400/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/item/4297842481

X = 8

Sale 18:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260988290#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

https://backpack.tf/item/4216995351

X = 8

Sale 19:

Sold to scrap.tf for 7 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307048774#!/compare/1530835200/1531353600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

https://backpack.tf/item/4297842481

X = 7.5

Sale 20:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 10.55 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151925679#!/compare/1532304000/1532390400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1532304000/1532390400

https://gyazo.com/477b3da38f6d063696fa82cb9ab46047

https://backpack.tf/item/4297842481

X = 7.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7094377636 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/7021264589 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7007316782 (#3-10)

https://backpack.tf/item/6838170607 (#11)

https://backpack.tf/item/6383626264 (#12-15)

https://backpack.tf/item/4789144732 (#16)

https://backpack.tf/item/4358650910 (#17-19)

https://backpack.tf/item/4323647672 (#20-22)

https://backpack.tf/item/4297842481 (#23-28)

https://backpack.tf/item/4268257099 (#29-33)

https://backpack.tf/item/4914818862 (#34)

https://backpack.tf/item/6935997290 - probably scammed

https://backpack.tf/item/4577190833 - scrap.tf bots

https://backpack.tf/item/4216995351 - tf2mart, other sales are used above

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084491465#!/compare/1535241600/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355861548#!/compare/1534118400/1535328000

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097128562#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

#3

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165214079#!/compare/1532131200/1532476800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175825701#!/compare/1532131200/1532476800

#4

Untraceable, sold to scrap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175825701#!/compare/1532995200/1533168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

#5

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997283715#!/compare/1531699200/1532995200

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997283715#!/compare/1531699200/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108020681#!/compare/1532649600/1533081600

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108020681#!/compare/1532649600/1533081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342522461#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342522461#!/compare/1533340800/1533686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133814282#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

#11

Bulk for Steaming Armored Authority

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329236369#!/compare/1533427200/1533513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156315732#!/compare/1533168000/1533513600

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1532304000/1532390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060374478#!/compare/1531699200/1532390400

https://gyazo.com/477b3da38f6d063696fa82cb9ab46047 - Labelled as 8 keys + 30 ref

#13

Untraceable, only 3 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350011940#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067741299#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067741299#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148777493#!/compare/1532390400/1532822400

#15

Sold for Orbiting Fire Tippler’s Tricorne

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148777493#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062946293#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

Can be used on the Tricorne.

#16

Auctioned away for 7 keys + some ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133814282#!/compare/1531872000/1532044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096779379#!/compare/1531353600/1532044800

Can’t track exactly how much ref, but will end up being too low anyways, most likely.

#17

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093501381#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049496889#!/compare/1520121600/1533081600

#18

Bulk for Eerie Handyman’s Handle

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189845146#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100807953#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

#19

Sold to a quickbuyer for some amount

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216937659#!/compare/1534636800/1534723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1534550400/1534636800

#20

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258915621#!/compare/1519257600/1533081600

#21

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258915621#!/compare/1534809600/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076191312#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

#22

Sold for Showstopper Yeti Punch + ~2 key skin

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076191312#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302161698#!/compare/1535414400/1535587200

#23

Purchased from scrap.tf, involving a stormy glengarry

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143501691#!/compare/1531267200/1531440000

Even if this were to be used here, the B/O would’ve been around 8-8.5 keys, so it would fit in the range here.

#24

Sold to scrap.tf for some amount

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143501691#!/compare/1531440000/1532044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531872000/1531958400

#25

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531958400/1532217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151925679#!/compare/1531785600/1532304000

#26

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf before the buyer was scanned.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#27

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148777493#!/compare/1532390400/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010582528#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#28

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313532674#!/compare/1532736000/1533513600

#29

Untraceable, buyer’s backpack rarely scanned

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054758757#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

#30

Untraceable, labelled as an 8 key + 3 ref purchase

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173847859#!/compare/1531785600/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198515764827#!/compare/1532131200/1532304000

https://gyazo.com/477b3da38f6d063696fa82cb9ab46047

#31

Untraceable? labelled as a 9 key sale. Probably re-sold before the buyer’s backpack was scanned.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198515764827#!/compare/1532304000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212896283#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://gyazo.com/477b3da38f6d063696fa82cb9ab46047

#32

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212896283#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340560799#!/compare/1532476800/1532822400

#33

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340560799#!/compare/1532476800/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#34

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf, no good seller compare link

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239903536#!/compare/1527379200/1531612800

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/cace5b219d4717a3392961b216f69891

https://backpack.tf/item/6838170607 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4216995351 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4232156645 - 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4613118499 - 11 keys

Sales at:

7.5 (2x)

8 (3x)

8.5 (3x)

9 (4x)

10 (3x)

11 (3x)

12

13

Seller at 11 is 8 months unsold. Needless to say, anything at or higher than 11 should be excluded.

Sales at or around 8 are pretty common, and currently, the only thing countering 8 being in the range is the single buyer at 8, which is a fair bit higher than the other buyers. Keeping 8 in the range, but will exclude 7.5.

Going with 8-10.