Using last 2 months due to the abundance of sales here.

LEMONSERINO is a nerd

Sales 1-6:

Sold for $24.90 (4x), $23.90, and $19.86 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30662;5;u95

https://backpack.tf/item/6945885905 - B/O of ~9 for the August 12th sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29705100

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-03 - $23.99 / $1.98 = 12.12 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-23 - $24.9 / $1.95 = 12.77 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-26 - $24.9 / $1.96 = 12.70 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-27 - $24.9 / $1.95 = 12.77 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-09 - $19.86 / $1.88 = 10.56 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-12 - $24.9 / $1.88 = 13.24 keys, caps at B/O of ~9.

X = 13 (3x)

X = 12

X = 11

X = 9

Sale 7:

Sold with a Botkiller scattergun (~2) for Pro. KS Aus Frontier Justice (~13)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320030042#!/compare/1535500800/1535587200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280800679#!/compare/1535414400/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/item/7086836594

X = 11

Sale 8

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306211537#!/compare/1533859200/1534032000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064684402#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6034002867

X = 10

Sale 9:

Sold for 9 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1531440000/1531526400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064667067#!/compare/1531440000/1531526400

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6845331842

X = 9.5

Sale 10:

Sold for 9 keys + 12 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273180640#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6845331842

Most of the keys (buyer’s end) and metal (seller’s end) appear, so I don’t doubt bot.tf is incorrect.

X = 9.5

Sale 11:

Sold for 9 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198515764827#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080757915#!/compare/1532908800/1533340800

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6347834438

X = 9.5

Sale 12:

Sold for 9 keys + 11 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358556666#!/compare/1534723200/1534809600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085245102#!/compare/1534723200/1534809600

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/4317560031

Only 9 keys and 3 ref match, but given all the cheaper items the seller bought later that day, it’s very likely the metal was spent on other items.

X = 9.5

Sale 13:

Sold for 9 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198515764827#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355881788#!/compare/1533081600/1533254400

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/4317560031

X = 9.5

Sale 14:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320030042#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/7086836594

X = 9

Sale 15:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1535673600/1535760000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198381033764#!/compare/1535587200/1535760000

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6866679135

X = 9

Sale 16:

Sold for 8 keys + ~1 key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353418874#!/compare/1530921600/1531008000

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6109660298

X = 9

Sale 17:

Sold for 8 keys + ~1 key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1531180800/1531267200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118744783#!/compare/1531180800/1531267200

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6109660298

X = 9

Sale 18:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050194207#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052440548#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

https://backpack.tf/item/4474431597

X = 9

Sale 19:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 14 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071474738#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6866679135

Only the ref matches, though I doubt bot.tf is incorrect, given that it’s the exact amount of metal.

X = 8.5

Sale 20:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 16 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064667067#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1531526400/1531612800

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6845331842

Same situation as the sale above.

X = 8.5

Sale 21:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 16 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306211537#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/6034002867

X = 8.5

Sale 22:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 16 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111761121#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/5800873931

X = 8.5

Sale 23:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 16 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049847929#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

https://backpack.tf/item/4244349534

8 keys match, ref was most likely spent on another key. Should be fine to assume bot.tf is correct here.

X = 8.5

Sale 24:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 8 keys + 16 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106017833#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

https://backpack.tf/item/4350714397

X = 8.5

Sale 25:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200

X = 8

Sale 26:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327837250#!/compare/1531785600/1531872000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838 - labelled as 8 keys + 16 ref, but no ref appears.

https://backpack.tf/item/5800873931

X = 8

Sale 27:

Sold for 8 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355881788#!/compare/1533081600/1533254400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357046243#!/compare/1532908800/1533254400

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838 - Labelled as 8 keys + 1 ref, no ref appears, even if it did, this sale would still be 8.

https://backpack.tf/item/4317560031

X = 8

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7086836594 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6945885905 (#4-6)

https://backpack.tf/item/6845331842 (#7-9)

https://backpack.tf/item/6034002867 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/5800873931 (#11 & #12)

https://backpack.tf/item/4604546274 (#13)

https://backpack.tf/item/4474431597 (#14 & #15)

https://backpack.tf/item/4317560031 (#16 & #17)

https://backpack.tf/item/4244349534 (#18-20)

https://backpack.tf/item/4350714397 (#21-23)

https://backpack.tf/item/4267732647 - Scammer sales

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351931715#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355868514#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

#2

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355868514#!/compare/1535068800/1535846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

#3

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

#4

Untraceable, sold to a quickbuyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186353961#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

#5

Untraceable, dumped on scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013460777#!/compare/1533168000/1533340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

#6

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

#7

Untraceable, labelled as an 8 key + 16 ref purchase on bot.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202800716#!/compare/1530316800/1530403200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1530316800/1530403200

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

#8

Untraceable, labelled as an 8 key + 16.77 ref purchase on bot.tf

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353418874#!/compare/1530921600/1531008000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1530921600/1531008000

#9

Untraceable, labelled as an 8 key + 14 ref purchase on bot.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118744783#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

#10

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087973412#!/compare/1530489600/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

#11

Untraceable, labelled as a 9 key + 12 ref sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311058492#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

#12

Sold for Atomic Head Full of Hot Air

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311058492#!/compare/1535500800/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110668453#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Would be too high here and too low there.

#13

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175931735#!/compare/1518220800/1532390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120285552#!/compare/1532995200/1533168000

#14

Bulk for Demonflame Handle

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1531699200/1532131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382589541#!/compare/1532044800/1532131200

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382589541#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050194207#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

#16

Transferred between bots

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357046243#!/compare/1534204800/1534464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140719727#!/compare/1534377600/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358556666#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

#17

Untraceable, probably went to and from a private/unscanned backpack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085245102#!/compare/1534723200/1534809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231929776#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

#18

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252315246#!/compare/1533081600/1535846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145469564#!/compare/1514592000/1534636800

#19

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

#20

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049847929#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

Probably bought by an unscanned backpack.

#21

Untraceable, sold to a bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1530396000/1530482400

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838 - Labelled as an 8 key + 16 ref purchase

#22

Appears to be a bulk sale from a bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106017833#!/compare/1531267200/1531353600

#23

Untraceable, labelled as a 9 key + 12 ref sale on bot.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1530309600/1530396000

https://gyazo.com/a9bfee6cf59642d48d17096446142838

Buyer seems to be untraceable

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/b8560ee8762d7b1bde572e2a42398a02

https://backpack.tf/item/6109660298 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6866679135 - ~9.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4474431597 - ~9.18 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4244349534 - ~9.37 keys

Sales at:

8 (3x)

8.5 (6x)

9 (6x)

9.5 (5x)

10

11 (2x)

12

13 (3x)

Sales at 12+ are marketplace sales, which are pretty high. Again. Should be fine to exclude them.

Neither of the sales at 11 are pure. Excluding them. If there weren’t cheaper sellers, I’d keep them.

10 is not a common trading point here, excluding 10. Would keep if there weren’t cheaper sellers.

9.5 is a common trading point, so I’ll be keeping it here.

8.5 is a common trading point, so I’ll be keeping that too, despite the (probably unreliable) buyer at ~8.5 keys.

Going to exclude 8, as there is a bot buying for ~8.12 keys, and 8 doesn’t appear to be too common. On top of there only being 3 sales, one of them went to a bot that was buying for ~8.5 keys.

Going with 8.5-9.5.