Sale 1:

Sold for 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1533427200/1533513600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128882492#!/compare/1533427200/1533513600

https://backpack.tf/item/1351370899

X = 13

Sale 2:

Sold for 13 keys + 13 ref (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327078449#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046455310#!/compare/1532304000/1532476800

https://gyazo.com/93252385ddd06540a5689211f5bcdd69

https://backpack.tf/item/1110406975

Not all the ref appears, but it wouldn’t affect the value of this sale anyways.

X = 13

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125216090#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092489052#!/compare/1535500800/1535587200

https://backpack.tf/item/1330524487

X = 12

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + small amount of ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798016614#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327078449#!/compare/1535673600/1535760000

https://backpack.tf/item/1330524487

X = 12

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + 5 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353947264#!/compare/1529798400/1530835200

https://gyazo.com/93252385ddd06540a5689211f5bcdd69

https://backpack.tf/item/1128916214

X = 12

Sale 6:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162872234#!/compare/1535500800/1535587200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198430413273#!/compare/1535155200/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/item/1097865508

X = 12

Sale 7:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101623005#!/compare/1532217600/1532390400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064029991#!/compare/1531958400/1533254400

https://backpack.tf/item/997937125

Histories don’t match because the keys were obtained and spent without them being scanned in the backpack, and ID’s don’t match because the item was modified before the backpack was scanned.

X = 12

Sale 8:

Sold for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385940902#!/compare/1532044800/1532131200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219068035#!/compare/1531872000/1532131200

https://gyazo.com/93252385ddd06540a5689211f5bcdd69

https://backpack.tf/item/522906508

X = 12

Sale 9:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798016614#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/item/1330524487

Using near ID shows more than 11 keys. Some of the keys were involved in another trade, however.

X = 11

Sale 10:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162872234#!/compare/1534896000/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/1097865508

X = 11

Sale 11:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057172126#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/item/1097865508

X = 11

Sale 12:

Bought from scrap.tf for ~11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101623005#!/compare/1532044800/1532217600

https://backpack.tf/item/997937125

X = 11

Sale 13:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394929555#!/compare/1531094400/1531180800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305164684#!/compare/1531094400/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/item/629363983

X = 10

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/1330524487 (#1-8)

https://backpack.tf/item/1128916214 (#9 & #10)

https://backpack.tf/item/1097865508 (#11-13)

https://backpack.tf/item/629363983 (#14 & #15)

#1

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177158446#!/compare/NaN/1527552000 - won’t load most recent date, not gonna bother

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

#2

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002492237#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

#3

Sold with a couple keys in taunts for Stormy Storm Blast Defense

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002492237#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198797842085#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

#4

Sold with ~4 keys in pure/items? for Terror-Watt Smoking Skid Lid

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198797842085#!/compare/1533945600/1534032000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363914581#!/compare/1532995200/1534032000

They don’t appear to have been involved according to item histories. If they weren’t involved, this sale will be an outlier.

#5

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363914581#!/compare/1535241600/1535414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535328000/1535414400

#6

Bought from scrap.tf for 10 keys + some amount of metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535328000/1535414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125216090#!/compare/1535328000/1535414400

I could only find 11 ref involved, which seems unlikely given the current scrap.tf rates, which are lower than they have been previously (~10.8 keys for something with a low-end of 13)

#7

Sold for Fountain of Delight Burstchester

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092489052#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Using to re-suggest the Burstchester.

#8

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf for some amount

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Seller’s backpack isn’t updating.

#9

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353947264#!/compare/1532476800/1533513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#10

Bought in bulk from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043939870#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

#11

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Seller’s backpack isn’t loading, not gonna bother.

#12

Untraceable, most likely sold to an unscanned backpack, then to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349886701#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

#13

Untraceable, bought and re-sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306928382#!/compare/1530144000/1531872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156912212#!/compare/1530835200/1530921600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394929555#!/compare/1530748800/1530835200

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305164684#!/compare/1531094400/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043939870#!/compare/1530835200/1531180800

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/e19308ecf60b30afdce2f1c457cca4d9

https://backpack.tf/item/1097865508 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1330524487 - ~13.4 keys

Sales at:

10

11 (4x)

12 (6x)

13 (2x)

The sales at 11 may have all been scrap.tf sales, however, as we can see here, there are plenty of traceable ones. On top of that, there are 4 more that are untraceable, but would most likely end up being around the same amount. Will keep 11, but exclude 10.

Going with 11-13.