Using sales from July onwards.

Sales 1-13:

Sold for $25.99, $25.79 (3x), $25.75, $23.98 $23.99, $22.33, $22, $17.05, and $16.1 (3x) on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30662;5;u92

https://backpack.tf/item/6907441026 - no outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/6892343778 - no outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/6874108946 - no outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/5425708144 - no outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/4601377462 - no outpost

https://backpack.tf/item/4229453757

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29695072 - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-03 - $23.98 / $1.98 = 12.11 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-12 - $23.99 / $1.9 = 12.63 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-13 - $16.1 / $1.97 = 8.17 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-17 - $16.1 / $1.95 = 8.26 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-07-21 - $25.99 / $1.95 = 13.33 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-03 - $25.75 / $1.9 = 13.55 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-13 - $25.79 / $1.88 = 13.72 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-23 - $16.1 / $1.9 = 8.47 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-25 - $17.05 / $1.9 = 8.97 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-02

- $22 / $1.88 = 11.70 keys

- $22.33 / $1.88 = 11.88 keys

- $25.79 / $1.88 = 13.72 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-03 - $25.79 / $1.89 = 13.65 keys

X = 14 (4x)

X = 13 (2x)

X = 12 (3x)

X = 9

X = 8.5 (2x)

X = 8

Sale 14:

Sold for Cool Field-Tested Woodsy Widowmaker SMG (12)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29703330 - B/O of 12

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198534173602#!/compare/1531008000/1531267200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155234648#!/compare/1531094400/1531267200

https://backpack.tf/item/4845406867

X = 12

Sale 15:

Sold for Searing Plasma Birdcage

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29754107 - B/O of 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103739319#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156525218#!/compare/1534896000/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/4754348658

Should cap at the B/O. If not, it should still at least fall into the range.

X = 12

Sale 16:

Sold for 11 keys some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408350356#!/compare/1534118400/1534464000

https://backpack.tf/item/4754348658

X = 11

Sale 17:

Sold for 11 keys (ID’s match)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198534173602#!/compare/1529020800/1530662400

https://backpack.tf/item/4845406867

X = 11

Sale 18:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028023499#!/compare/1532131200/1532304000

https://backpack.tf/item/6930368346

X = 11

Sale 19:

Sold, in a trade hold, for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028023499#!/compare/1532563200/1533945600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802224702#!/compare/1532649600/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/item/6930368346

X = 11

Sale 20:

Bought from scrap.tf for 11 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103739319#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/4754348658

X = 11

Sale 21:

Bought from scrap.tf for 11 keys + 1 scrap

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338803782#!/compare/1534032000/1534291200

https://backpack.tf/item/4682729780

X = 11

Sale 22:

Sold for Ancient Codex HFoHA (8.75)+ ~2 keys in pure/items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29739740 - B/O of 12

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003946713#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330294613#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

X = 11

Sale 23:

Scrap sale with at least half a key in metal for 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534291200/1534377600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106493112#!/compare/1534377600/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/item/4682729780

X = 11

Sale 24:

Sold to scrap for 10 keys + ~1 key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050194207#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

https://backpack.tf/item/6917334704

Worth noting that scrap.tf rates were much higher than they currently are at the time of this sale.

X = 11

Sale 25:

Sold for Circling Heart Brain Warming Wear (13.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29709770 - B/O of 10

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133814282#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044556971#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

https://backpack.tf/item/4682729780

X = 10 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 26:

Sold to scrap.tf for 10 keys + less than a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362008411#!/compare/1534291200/1534377600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534291200/1534377600

https://backpack.tf/item/4682729780

X = 10

Sale 27:

Sold for 10 keys + 4 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107042866#!/compare/1532217600/1532390400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169995643#!/compare/1527033600/1532390400

https://backpack.tf/item/4214669201

X = 10

Sale 28:

Sold with ~3.5 keys in items for Pro. KS Aussie Frontier Justice (~13)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078240812#!/compare/1533686400/1534032000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050052801#!/compare/1533772800/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/item/7008106963

X = 9.5

Sale 29:

Sold to a bot for 9 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032474223#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1530576000/1530662400

https://gyazo.com/0d98b5fbafb657da78611e886788a67d - was 8.88 ref, according to bot.tf, which rounds up to 0.5 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/6917334704

X = 9.5

Sale 30:

Sold for Magnetic Hat Protector HFoHA (9)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110668453#!/compare/1535587200/1535673600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311058492#!/compare/1535500800/1535673600

https://backpack.tf/item/6664427736

X = 9

Other sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7039037367 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6930368346 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6907441026 (#4, the rest were gambled or are used in the sales above)

https://backpack.tf/item/6892343778 (#5-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6874108946 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6664427736 (#9-13)

https://backpack.tf/item/5425708144 (#14-16, the rest were gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/4824199827 (#17 & #18, the rest were gambled)

https://backpack.tf/item/4754348658 (#19-21)

https://backpack.tf/item/4682729780 (#22-26)

https://backpack.tf/item/4601377462 (#27-29)

https://backpack.tf/item/4358364140 (#30-35)

https://backpack.tf/item/4322995961 (#36-39, the rest were mannco.trade stuff)

https://backpack.tf/item/4214669201 (#40 & #41, the rest were tradeit.gg + an untraceable scrap.tf purchase)

https://backpack.tf/item/4213412737 (#42)

https://backpack.tf/item/6917334704 (#43 & #44)

https://backpack.tf/item/4229453757 - gambled. last one may have gone to a quickbuyer, but it’s untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/6822208022 - mannco.trade stuff + sale to unscanned backpack

https://backpack.tf/item/7053495172 - all gambled

#1

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374536861#!/compare/1533427200/1533772800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029176810#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

#2

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531180800/1531267200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164279539#!/compare/1530144000/1531267200

#3

Bulk for Strange Neutron Star Titanium Pillar

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164279539#!/compare/1532044800/1532736000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1531958400/1532044800

#4

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532304000/1532390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074153368#!/compare/1532304000/1532390400

#5

Bulk for Green Energy Brigade Helm

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056842766#!/compare/1531699200/1531785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165055074#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

#6

Sold with ~1 key in items for Flies Pyro’s Beanie + Dead Presidents Burning Bandana

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165055074#!/compare/1531785600/1531872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351664215#!/compare/1531526400/1531872000

Gonna be high without a B/O, excluding.

#7

Bulk for Orbiting Fire Executioner

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351664215#!/compare/1532044800/1532304000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

#8

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190325706#!/compare/1534982400/1535155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206642680#!/compare/1534982400/1535241600

#9

Sold for Vivid Plasma Bomb Beanie

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280868306#!/compare/1532736000/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038070401#!/compare/1532476800/1532908800

Seems incredibly high, and low there. Is also being used on the Beanie, though it may end up needing another sale.

#10:

Bulk scrap.tf sale for a Scorching Rubber Glove

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038070401#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

#11

Scrap.tf sale involving a Strange Stormy Archer’s Sterling

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532995200/1533081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137250211#!/compare/1532736000/1533081600

Better to not use this sale at all.

#12

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137250211#!/compare/1533945600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

#13

Bulk scrap.tf sale involving a Dead Presidents Feathered Fiend

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110668453#!/compare/1534896000/1535068800

#14

Untraceable cookies stn.tf purchase

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080322738#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

#15

Untraceable cookies stn.tf sale. Buyer was unscanned, then dumped on scrap.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

#16

Untraceable scrap.tf sale, along with several other unusuals

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289107504#!/compare/1508457600/1535328000

#17

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150637341#!/compare/1531958400/1532044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531958400/1532044800

#18

Untraceable, bought from scrap.tf, buyer seems to have been unscanned

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600

#19

Fell for the “festive/festivized” scam? Was traded back afterwards

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408350356#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054033879#!/compare/1534377600/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408350356#!/compare/1534550400/1534636800

#20

Sold for 20 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198408350356#!/compare/1534636800/1535068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131658546#!/compare/1534291200/1535068800

#21

Untraceable, sold to scrap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131658546#!/compare/1535068800/1536019200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535068800/1535155200

#22

Untraceable, probably went in and out of a private/unscanned backpack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190514893#!/compare/1531872000/1531958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066212843#!/compare/1533686400/1533772800

#23

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066212843#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003946713#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

#24

Scrap.tf sale involving a Steaming Fro + some metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330294613#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534032000/1534118400

Better to use the sale on the Fro, if at all.

#25

Appears to be bulk for pure to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338803782#!/compare/1534032000/1534291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534204800/1534291200

#26

Bought from scrap.tf. Only 10 keys appear, but I can guarantee more were involved.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534204800/1534291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362008411#!/compare/1534204800/1534291200

It was most likely 11 keys total, but I can’t confirm

#27

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111066894#!/compare/1530489600/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1530489600/1530576000

Only 9 keys and 2 ref match, but I can guarantee more was involved.

#28

Untraceable, probably sold to an unscanned backpack

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1530921600/1531008000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090147535#!/compare/1531008000/1531094400

#29

Gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090147535#!/compare/1531094400/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123631904#!/compare/1530835200/1531180800

#30

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984373540#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

#31

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984373540#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312441398#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

#32

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312441398#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008113369#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

#33

Bulk for Blizzardy Jungle Wreath

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008113369#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198437172792#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

#34

Sold for Circling Peace Sign Head Hedge

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198437172792#!/compare/1533772800/1533859200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198291522880#!/compare/1533772800/1533859200

Should be used on the Hedge.

#35

Sold with a key for Miami Nights Otolaryngologist’s Mirror

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198291522880#!/compare/1535241600/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206492509#!/compare/1535328000/1535414400

Way too high, excluding.

#36

Sold with 9 keys for Neutron Star Cranial Carcharodon

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041151588#!/compare/1532649600/1532736000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080296855#!/compare/1532476800/1532649600

#37

Sold for many cheap items, and a ’72 Battin’

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080296855#!/compare/1532476800/1532649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802522324#!/compare/1532563200/1532822400

Better to not use this sale without a B/O, especially with the abundance of pure sales we already have here.

#38

Bulk from scrap, for a Logo Bear Necessities

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209389815#!/compare/1533081600/1533254400

#39

Sold back to scrap for a Miami Broadband Bonnet. Other items may have been involved.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209389815#!/compare/1533254400/1533340800

#40

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169995643#!/compare/1532390400/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185284063#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

The keys on the buyer’s end match, but there were definitely more.

#41

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185284063#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166323403#!/compare/1533254400/1533427200

#42

Untraceable.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160392381#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200

https://gyazo.com/0d98b5fbafb657da78611e886788a67d - labelled as 10 keys + 18 ref, only 16 ref matches. If bot.tf is correct, it’ll end up in the range anyways.

#43

Bulk for Ooze Hunter In the Darkness?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839307425#!/compare/1531353600/1531440000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050194207#!/compare/1531267200/1531440000

#44

Untraceable, sold to scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1531872000/1531958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329012572#!/compare/1530403200/1531958400

Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/e0d5757077ef2ca9198e0ef502b06373

https://backpack.tf/item/4390067925 - ~12.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4740943123 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7008106963 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4754348658 - 16 keys

Sales at:

8

8.5 (2x)

9 (2x)

9.5 (2x)

10 (3x)

11 (9x)

12 (5x)

13 (2x)

14 (4x)

Buyers up to 9.3, excluding 9 and below.

9.5 doesn’t appear to be too common, and I’d like an integer as the low-end here. Excluding 9.5.

Including 10, as there are many sales at or around that price.

The sales at 13+ were all marketplace.tf sales. There’s a near-month unsold at 14 keys in the classifieds, so I’ll keep 13, and exclude 14.

Going with 10-13.