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~3180 keys
bonzo
Unusual Merc's Mohawk Bonzo the All-Gnawing
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1 recent sale

All creds to to y3ezz who's inv vlaue was too low to post


sale)

sold along with 25 keys for a strange sunbeams law (716), hellish inferno zoomin broom (43), spellbound gibus (in-date at 520), searing plasma cardbeard (682), and a cloudy moon festive tree (90)

716 + 43 + 520 + 682 + 90 - 25 = 2026 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400


here come the minis boys


Vivd Plasma Cardbeard

sold along with a blizzardy storm fez (3 month old seller at 15,13 is fine) and skill gotten gains jumping jack (9) for a

SBTWC Rotation Sensation (in-date at 260), bubbling head prize (in-date at 270) and a Cmoon liquidator's lid (174)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1533513600/1533686400

260 + 270 + 174 = 704 keys

704 - 22 = 682 keys

liquidator micro thingy

sold along with a '72 victory lap (in-date at 17) and ~2 keys sweets for a strange burning field practice (in-date at 192.5 = 193)

193 - 19 = 174 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1531267200/1531440000


Cloudy Moon Festive Tree

90 pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114764948#!/compare/1532995200/1533168000

taking 90 keys


Strange Sunbeams Law

sold for an anti-freeze ke (666), mw hot flower power revolver (in-date at 19.5 = 20), and bs isotope brain candy knife (in-date at 29.5 = 30)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198247314#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

666 + 20 + 30 = 716 keys

anti-freeze ke micro thingy

sold for an arcana headsplitter (in-date at 666)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1534464000/1534636800


Hellish Inferno Zoomin' Broom

https://marketplace.tf/items/30672;5;u3013

sold for $85

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-05-22 = Keys were $1.97

85 / 1.97 = 43.14 = 43 keys

i know, its 109 days old but its LITERALLY THE ONLY VALID SALE AND THIS SUGG ISNT GOING TO WASTE


buy out was 2000

taking 2000 keys

thank you

Legendary sale. Congrats.

    Aside from the fact that this sale is definitely an outlier in realistic sense, there's a couple of major issues here.


    The first one is the AF KE, which as pointed out has a mini that isn't valid. That won't be that far off I suppose, but it may be worth looking into that.


    Other sales there:

    Duped scorching TC, by guesstimate that'd be 600-700 ish, but would need some looking into

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027338258#!/compare/1536537600/1536710400


    Demon vive, stormy 13th tyrants, cbubs veil and the hard counter

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803829026#!/compare/1537056000/1537142400

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043991016#!/compare/1537056000/1537142400

    That's a little higher than the currently proposed mini


    Sold for the hats here - TC's duped and probably way too high. Most recent mp sale is around 230 keys

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104979324#!/compare/1536278400/1536364800

    https://marketplace.tf/items/378;5;u64

    Would make the sale 700 ish, and thats taking the cotton at current (which was updated conservatively)


    AF vive, PE muffs and dbd modest

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1538784000/1538870400

    That's significantly lower


    Sold for the hats here. Tower needs a drop (recent suggestions have been around 90 and only had minor flaws) and so does the buto (seller at 200)

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198247314#!/compare/1533600000/1533772800

    I guess the sale'd end up somewhere around the used mini though


    That's all for the law mini; only other law sale is a bulky sale for a strange burning warpig which has no other sales other than a bulksale for a duped burning TC (which Ill mention below), but indicates that it may be on the high side. But then again, its mainly the other two hats that are going to be dealbreakers here.


    Then there's the beard. The sale used in the mini here is probably an outlier altogether. That was resold in aforementioned bulksale for the duped burning TC, and has since be unsuccessfully selling for 600 (and recently even lowered to 550) https://imgur.com/a/8Icec82


    The TC sale:

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1536624000/1536710400


    Other sales there are mediocre in usability, but all share a common ground in that they're much lower than the sale used here (and even than the seller listed).


    It sold here with adds (little over 100 directly match) for a GE boa (has sellers at 500$ which is sub-300, and other sellers supporting that needs some serious drop) and a cauldron TC

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1532563200/1532649600


    That TC has sales here at what seems to be 119 keys?

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

    I doubt thats all thouhg


    it has another sale here for a DaD crown + beams air dog

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800

    The crown was conservatively updated and had a seller at 300 when it was last accepted. That'd need looking into as well, but even taking that at that seller's value it'd make the sale 330, and the total of the beard sale at ~500 ish, and it is not unlikely that both hats are still overstated in value there.


    Then theres this:

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037248506#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000

    The RA modest's only sale is far far lower than current (though thats probably too low). Taking that at 300 would make the total of the sale 500, and at the open suggestion's value, or what it would've been if the houwar was properly assessed, it'd make the beard just a little over 300


    There's also this (currently outdated though)

    https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5adfb79644325a73771252c7

    Back then that'd have been a bit lower than what it was suggested at also supporting that the sale used here would be an outlier over a larger period of time. Not direclty usable as evidence of course, just looking at everything I can here for this rather odd case. (and it's still more recent than the gibus, see below).


    Then there's the gibus, which is definitely not in-date. the suggestion isn't even in-date, and the suggestion was based on a sale from march and a 3-month unsold. Recent sales are far lower:

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079333678#!/compare/1531267200/1531526400 280 keys

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971390626#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000 with searing pusher for 350 keys (so ~290-300?). That'd make the gibus over 200 keys too high here. aside from that it was also dumped in that bulk for the duped burning TC along with all the other overpriced hats


    You really can't rely on sales from march on that; I mean, if we're going to look that far back on thís hat, we'll find that aside from this sale, the most recent sale supported current instead of this

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118859180#!/compare/1522627200/1522800000 (and at that time the rota was 450 so it'd even have been lower :P)


    Again, that can't be used directly, but it should be noted that this sale for the mohawk is 100% an outlier in reality.


    All in all based on the above, this will likely be over 400 keys off, and that's even ignoring the fact that you're using a taunt without a proper mini (the sale used is fár too old, again if we're going that far back, we can see that at that time the mohawk had another sale that supports this being one big outlier :P).


    I'm generally hesistant when it comes to this update (mainly based on the fact that the sale is 3-4x higher than any other sale ever), but if it is to be done, it's gonna be needing a lot more work

      it's been 2 days. hope has practically given up on this, might as well close. will rework. appreciate your long comment, i read the whole thing (not tl;dr as i usually do).

        For the KE, i'll definitely make a higher quality mini on that. And as for the cardbeard, the liquidator was just super high imo so will redo that as stated. Gibus was just ridiculous too. Dunno, kinda just shit this out in an hour and a half, so will have to spend some time on this.

          I'll be closing this one now - should you manage to work everything out to satisfaction, I suppose it can be done