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1 recent sale
All creds to to y3ezz who's inv vlaue was too low to post
sale)
sold along with 25 keys for a strange sunbeams law (716), hellish inferno zoomin broom (43), spellbound gibus (in-date at 520), searing plasma cardbeard (682), and a cloudy moon festive tree (90)
716 + 43 + 520 + 682 + 90 - 25 = 2026 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400
here come the minis boys
Vivd Plasma Cardbeard
sold along with a blizzardy storm fez (3 month old seller at 15,13 is fine) and skill gotten gains jumping jack (9) for a
SBTWC Rotation Sensation (in-date at 260), bubbling head prize (in-date at 270) and a Cmoon liquidator's lid (174)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1533513600/1533686400
260 + 270 + 174 = 704 keys
704 - 22 = 682 keys
liquidator micro thingy
sold along with a '72 victory lap (in-date at 17) and ~2 keys sweets for a strange burning field practice (in-date at 192.5 = 193)
193 - 19 = 174 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1531267200/1531440000
Cloudy Moon Festive Tree
90 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114764948#!/compare/1532995200/1533168000
taking 90 keys
Strange Sunbeams Law
sold for an anti-freeze ke (666), mw hot flower power revolver (in-date at 19.5 = 20), and bs isotope brain candy knife (in-date at 29.5 = 30)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198247314#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093926010#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200
666 + 20 + 30 = 716 keys
anti-freeze ke micro thingy
sold for an arcana headsplitter (in-date at 666)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1534464000/1534636800
Hellish Inferno Zoomin' Broom
https://marketplace.tf/items/30672;5;u3013
sold for $85
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-05-22 = Keys were $1.97
85 / 1.97 = 43.14 = 43 keys
i know, its 109 days old but its LITERALLY THE ONLY VALID SALE AND THIS SUGG ISNT GOING TO WASTE
buy out was 2000
taking 2000 keys
thank you
Af ke mini is wrong, was used there, however https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198247314#!/compare/1533600000/1533772800 is another mini, should still be around the same, and overall sale should still cap at 2000 (commenting this for y3ezz)
Ay thanks man
Legendary sale. Congrats.
Aside from the fact that this sale is definitely an outlier in realistic sense, there's a couple of major issues here.
The first one is the AF KE, which as pointed out has a mini that isn't valid. That won't be that far off I suppose, but it may be worth looking into that.
Other sales there:
Duped scorching TC, by guesstimate that'd be 600-700 ish, but would need some looking into
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027338258#!/compare/1536537600/1536710400
Demon vive, stormy 13th tyrants, cbubs veil and the hard counter
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803829026#!/compare/1537056000/1537142400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043991016#!/compare/1537056000/1537142400
That's a little higher than the currently proposed mini
Sold for the hats here - TC's duped and probably way too high. Most recent mp sale is around 230 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104979324#!/compare/1536278400/1536364800
https://marketplace.tf/items/378;5;u64
Would make the sale 700 ish, and thats taking the cotton at current (which was updated conservatively)
AF vive, PE muffs and dbd modest
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1538784000/1538870400
That's significantly lower
Sold for the hats here. Tower needs a drop (recent suggestions have been around 90 and only had minor flaws) and so does the buto (seller at 200)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198247314#!/compare/1533600000/1533772800
I guess the sale'd end up somewhere around the used mini though
That's all for the law mini; only other law sale is a bulky sale for a strange burning warpig which has no other sales other than a bulksale for a duped burning TC (which Ill mention below), but indicates that it may be on the high side. But then again, its mainly the other two hats that are going to be dealbreakers here.
Then there's the beard. The sale used in the mini here is probably an outlier altogether. That was resold in aforementioned bulksale for the duped burning TC, and has since be unsuccessfully selling for 600 (and recently even lowered to 550) https://imgur.com/a/8Icec82
The TC sale:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1536624000/1536710400
Other sales there are mediocre in usability, but all share a common ground in that they're much lower than the sale used here (and even than the seller listed).
It sold here with adds (little over 100 directly match) for a GE boa (has sellers at 500$ which is sub-300, and other sellers supporting that needs some serious drop) and a cauldron TC
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1532563200/1532649600
That TC has sales here at what seems to be 119 keys?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112516663#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600
I doubt thats all thouhg
it has another sale here for a DaD crown + beams air dog
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1534118400/1534204800
The crown was conservatively updated and had a seller at 300 when it was last accepted. That'd need looking into as well, but even taking that at that seller's value it'd make the sale 330, and the total of the beard sale at ~500 ish, and it is not unlikely that both hats are still overstated in value there.
Then theres this:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037248506#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000
The RA modest's only sale is far far lower than current (though thats probably too low). Taking that at 300 would make the total of the sale 500, and at the open suggestion's value, or what it would've been if the houwar was properly assessed, it'd make the beard just a little over 300
There's also this (currently outdated though)
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5adfb79644325a73771252c7
Back then that'd have been a bit lower than what it was suggested at also supporting that the sale used here would be an outlier over a larger period of time. Not direclty usable as evidence of course, just looking at everything I can here for this rather odd case. (and it's still more recent than the gibus, see below).
Then there's the gibus, which is definitely not in-date. the suggestion isn't even in-date, and the suggestion was based on a sale from march and a 3-month unsold. Recent sales are far lower:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079333678#!/compare/1531267200/1531526400 280 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971390626#!/compare/1532217600/1532304000 with searing pusher for 350 keys (so ~290-300?). That'd make the gibus over 200 keys too high here. aside from that it was also dumped in that bulk for the duped burning TC along with all the other overpriced hats
You really can't rely on sales from march on that; I mean, if we're going to look that far back on thís hat, we'll find that aside from this sale, the most recent sale supported current instead of this
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118859180#!/compare/1522627200/1522800000 (and at that time the rota was 450 so it'd even have been lower :P)
Again, that can't be used directly, but it should be noted that this sale for the mohawk is 100% an outlier in reality.
All in all based on the above, this will likely be over 400 keys off, and that's even ignoring the fact that you're using a taunt without a proper mini (the sale used is fár too old, again if we're going that far back, we can see that at that time the mohawk had another sale that supports this being one big outlier :P).
I'm generally hesistant when it comes to this update (mainly based on the fact that the sale is 3-4x higher than any other sale ever), but if it is to be done, it's gonna be needing a lot more work
it's been 2 days. hope has practically given up on this, might as well close. will rework. appreciate your long comment, i read the whole thing (not tl;dr as i usually do).
For the KE, i'll definitely make a higher quality mini on that. And as for the cardbeard, the liquidator was just super high imo so will redo that as stated. Gibus was just ridiculous too. Dunno, kinda just shit this out in an hour and a half, so will have to spend some time on this.
I'll be closing this one now - should you manage to work everything out to satisfaction, I suppose it can be done