Sale 1:

Sold for 33 keys + 15 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1533945600/1534204800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132172053#!/compare/1533686400/1534118400

https://backpack.tf/item/5787243632

https://i.imgur.com/hg94LH1.png

X = 33

Sale 2:

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Polar Bear + ~14 keys in pure/items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29695736 - B/O of 30

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1530144000/1530230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377555279#!/compare/1530230400/1530316800

https://backpack.tf/item/6135337581

Should easily cap.

X = 30 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sol for 29 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1532476800/1532563200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050144132#!/compare/1532476800/1532563200

https://backpack.tf/item/6793289467

X = 29

Sale 4:

Sold for 28 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237338144#!/compare/1534809600/1535068800

https://backpack.tf/item/5985885929

Compare shows 38 keys obtained together, but (the first) 10 came from selling the terror-watt beret.

X = 28

Sale 5:

Sold for 27 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073376401#!/compare/1536192000/1536278400

https://backpack.tf/item/6876916811

X = 27

Sale 6:

Sold for 20 keys + ~6 keys in buds/metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1533772800/1533859200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072555392#!/compare/1533859200/1533945600

https://backpack.tf/item/6793289467

X = 26

Sale 7:

Sold for 26 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043832583#!/compare/1532908800/1533427200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178088350#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

https://backpack.tf/item/5985885929

X = 26

Sale 8:

Sold for 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067958729?time=1533194906

https://backpack.tf/item/6793289467

X = 25

Sale 9:

Bought from scrap.tf for 24 keys + more than half a key in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1536796800/1536883200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259986634#!/compare/1536883200/1536969600

https://backpack.tf/item/6743702056

X = 25

Sale 10:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 24 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240750142#!/compare/1530057600/1530576000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317606171#!/compare/1530489600/1530576000

https://i.imgur.com/hg94LH1.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6876916811

X = 24

Sale 11:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 24 keys + 2 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804015732#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/item/5985885929

X = 24

Sale 12:

Sold in an auction for Disco Beat Down Archer’s Sterling (21) + Uncraftable Spine-Chilling Shull 2011 (~2)

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377555279#!/compare/1532908800/1533081600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174084635#!/compare/1532908800/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/item/6135337581

X = 23

Sale 13:

Sold to scrap.tf for 22 keys + more than half a key in ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132172053#!/compare/1534464000/1534636800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

https://backpack.tf/item/5787243632

X = 23

Sale 14:

Sold to scrap.tf for 22 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117391151#!/compare/1536796800/1536883200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1536710400/1536796800

https://backpack.tf/item/6743702056

X = 22

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6876916811 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6793289467 (#2 & #3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6743702056 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/6660405527 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/6654770059 (#6, other transactions were between bots and bot owner.)

https://backpack.tf/item/6185459318 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6135337581 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/6135337581 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/5985885929 (#10 & #11)

https://backpack.tf/item/5787243632 (#12 & #13)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301015840#!/compare/1530921600/1531180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1531008000/1531094400

#2

Untraceable, tradeback

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050144132#!/compare/1532563200/1532995200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

#3

Untraceable, tradeback

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1533081600/1533168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067958729#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317606171#!/compare/1529625600/1529712000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198403466078#!/compare/1529712000/1531440000

https://i.imgur.com/hg94LH1.png - Labelled as 30 keys

#5

Bulk for Tesla Coil Tough Guy’s Toque

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198403466078#!/compare/1531440000/1532131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793444#!/compare/1531440000/1531526400

#6

Bulk for Lantern Festive Tree

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1532649600/1532736000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071376804#!/compare/1515801600/1532736000

https://i.imgur.com/hg94LH1.png - Labelled as 30 keys

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1532476800/1532563200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055719700#!/compare/1532476800/1532649600

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323257469#!/compare/1528934400/1529193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1529107200/1529193600

#9

Bought from scrap.tf for ~23 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1529107200/1529193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1529107200/1529193600

Seems like a little bit is missing, given the other purchase from scrap was close to 25 keys. Could be correct but I’ll exclude it just in case.

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178088350#!/compare/1533340800/1533427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029367967#!/compare/1533340800/1533859200

Probably 23 keys, but I can’t confirm.

#11

Bulk/untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029367967#!/compare/1533945600/1534636800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804015732#!/compare/1534377600/1534464000

#12

Untraceable-ish, bought from scrap.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1534464000/1534550400

Keys visible on the buyer’s end, but hard to tell exactly how many were involved as the buyer bought more than 1 item from scrap that day.

#13

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074971373#!/compare/1534550400/1534636800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434797055#!/compare/1534550400/1534636800

22 keys match, though I can guarantee one or both of the strange items on the buyer’s end sold for keys that were used in the trade.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/hOvUxLH.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6654770059 - 28 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6660405527 - 29 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6196880672 - 34 keys

Sales at:

22

23 (2x)

24 (2x)

25 (2x)

26 (2x)

27

28

29

30

33

https://i.imgur.com/NskHnwN.png - 5 buyers at ~24, excluding 23 and lower. Keeping 24 though as sales are common at this point.

33 looks like an outlier, especially given the current sellers. Excluding 33.

Was going to exclude 39 due to the month unsold at 29 and the 30 sale not being pure, but given that I’m keeping 24 in the range, this should balance that out a bit.

Going with 24-30.