Right off the bat:

• Low end is capped at 15.4/15.45 based on classified buyers
• Nothing on bot.tf: https://gyazo.com/da04ec21ebe48690513ab57049a61f1c
• Going back two weeks

TF2Outpost:

• No sellers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/274392024
• Buyers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/274392025

1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29755258 - 15 keys + 3 refined (15.08 keys)
2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29749973 - 14 key + 7 reined (14.2 keys)
3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29710336 - 9 keys flat

Steam Market:

• One sale at $45.85: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Bacon%20Grease
• Current key price: https://gyazo.com/ef313b6d5f454c1d9452d695922dab03 ($2.41)

That gives us 19.1 keys flat.

Marketplace.tf:

• One sale at $44.44: https://marketplace.tf/items/5633;6
• Key price: http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-05 ($1.86)

That gives us 23.89 keys flat.

Classified sellers:

• Two sellers: https://gyazo.com/d1fb5401e2a34ce20475bb42249bc9b5

1. Both at 21.48 keys

• Buyers: https://gyazo.com/ee4070b47aec47c04bb4d2b6cdb0b1bb

1. 1x 15.45 (young)
2. 6x 15.42
3. 1x 15.28 (wellish bumped)
4. 1x 15.2 (poorly bumped)
5. 1x 6 (don't quit your day job)

Using the only sales we have, let's go with 19.1-23.9 keys.