Sale 1:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085302138#!/compare/1534809600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/item/3331603405

https://i.imgur.com/McV1EaM.png

Seller listed it immediately on marketplace.tf. You can see their listing there.

X = 5

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 5.11 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044547547#!/compare/1534723200/1534896000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/item/3331603405

https://i.imgur.com/McV1EaM.png

X = 4

Sale 3:

Sold for 4 keys + 6 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287854546#!/compare/1536019200/1536105600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1535932800/1536019200

https://backpack.tf/item/2788759520

X = 4

Sales 4 & 5

Sold for $6.10 and $6.16 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/1109;5;u3001

https://backpack.tf/item/3799227818

Both would’ve gone to buy orders and would be significantly lower than the buyers on the classifieds.

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6883317020 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6756864770 (#2-4)

https://backpack.tf/item/5313376880 (#5 & #6)

https://backpack.tf/item/3331603405 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/2693646897 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/2866517584 - tf2mart stuff

https://backpack.tf/item/6352840289 - tf2mart stuff

https://backpack.tf/item/6368235450 - Not unusual at the time, and gambled

#1

Bulk for Kill-a-Watt German Gonzila

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273471153#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

#2

Probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153904068#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126155258#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126155258#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1536451200/1536537600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120532779#!/compare/1508457600/1536710400

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047092983#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

Would’ve sold for keys, but can’t tell how many.

#6

Untraceable, sold to a bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316875234#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

#7

Bulk for Circling Heart Festive Tree

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798950478#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044547547#!/compare/1534723200/1534896000

#8

Sold for 4 keys + 4 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048851745#!/compare/1535760000/1535846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046558973#!/compare/1535760000/1535846400

I feel like more than 4 ref was involved, so I’ll call this sale untraceable.

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/ApvXpfp.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6883317020 - ~4.56 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3139983893 - ~5.25 keys

Sales at:

4 (2x)

5

4 is a common trading point. Keeping 4.

Going with 4-5.