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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold for $18.85 on marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/30839;5;u3001
Couldn’t find the item’s history
http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-11 - $18.85 / $1.87 = 10.08 keys
X = 10
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 6 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119609795#!/compare/1535587200/1535846400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1535760000/1535846400
https://backpack.tf/item/6061701587
https://i.imgur.com/m88nAtl.png
X = 6.5
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/6738585896 (#1 & #2)
https://backpack.tf/item/6054151243 - not unusual at the time
https://backpack.tf/item/6934388738 - not unusual at the time
https://backpack.tf/item/6839924136 - tf2mart stuff
https://backpack.tf/item/5866025809 - scammers
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287222419#!/compare/1535760000/1536019200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332277454#!/compare/1535673600/1536019200
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332277454#!/compare/1535673600/1536019200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1536019200/1536105600
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/lD4JIHk.png
https://backpack.tf/item/6738585896 - 9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6061701587 - 10 keys
Sales at:
6.5
10
The sale at 6.5 is the only one in the last month, and bot.tf shows the most recent purchase around this price was around 2 months prior to the one listed here. With 4 buyers at ~6.5, it should be safe to assume that 6.5 isn’t a common trading point, and exclude it here.
Using the seller at 9 for the low-end.
Going with 9-10.