Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 10 keys?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

Buyer?: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074002812#!/compare/1534809600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/item/6990551497 - history shows it going to a swap.gg bot.

https://i.imgur.com/2OBTuox.png

I presume that the linked compare is the buyer’s, given the 10 keys on the seller’s end come from this guy, and they bought a shitton of taunts that day. Going to assume this sale is correct.

X = 10

Sale 2:

Sold for $15.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30917;5;u3001

https://backpack.tf/item/6474408914 - No outpost

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-16 - $15.99 / $1.85 = 8.64 keys

X = 8.5

Sale 3:

Sold for 8 keys (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1537315200/1537401600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079715584#!/compare/1537401600/1537488000

https://backpack.tf/item/6794882058

https://i.imgur.com/2OBTuox.png

X = 8

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 18 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142656307#!/compare/1536019200/1536192000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1536105600/1536192000

https://backpack.tf/item/6990551497

https://i.imgur.com/2OBTuox.png

2 keys and 13 ref match. Given that, it should be safe to assume the sale is correct.

X = 5.5

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049782067#!/compare/1536883200/1537056000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312583107#!/compare/1536969600/1537056000

https://backpack.tf/item/6794882058

https://i.imgur.com/2OBTuox.png

5 keys match, and it appears the seller bought keys later that day, which would explain the absence in ref. Should be fine to use this sale.

X = 5.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6478706355 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/6794882058 (#2)

https://backpack.tf/item/6844890400 tf2mart stuff

#1

Bulk for Ancient Codex Universal Translator

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060558049#!/compare/1534550400/1534896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024867201#!/compare/1534809600/1534896000

#2

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211113551#!/compare/1535587200/1537488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049782067#!/compare/1535673600/1535932800

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/DQmOIQQ.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6803299972 - ~7.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6990551497 - 8 keys

Sales at:

5.5 (2x)

8

8.5

10

10 is an outlier, excluding 10.

Going to exclude 8.5, due to the 2 sellers for less on the classifieds, as well as the common B/O’s for around that much. Also, I can almost guarantee that Julia’s B/O was 8, or lower.

Going with 5.5-8.