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Well, this is gonna be a whole lot harder now that TF2 Outpost is RIP. Let's take a swing at it anyway.
backpack.tf's Classifieds
On the buy side, there's plenty of listings for 39.88 refined. There do remain a few listings at 39.77 refined, but since sales are king, I'll expand more on that in a little bit. On the sell side, 40 refined is clearly king, and it's easy to understand why - it's a nice, round number. With both sides, there are definitely a few outliers (1 38 refined and 1 39 refined sell listings, both from humans; and 1 40 refined buy listing from a human) but that's standard fare.
Buyer Supplies
On first glance it seems that there's a split between 39.77 and 39.88 refined and you might think "well why not make 39.77 your low value". Let's have a look at a few 39.77 refined listings:
Listing #3 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/Ojb3bEp.png - has 485 keys. Seems a little suspect but entirely plausible that it could hit its 500 cap.
Listing #4 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/i16tSNw.png - has no keys. Listing appears to be new, and a little unprepared as it only has enough metal for one key to be sold.
Listings below 40 refined are also very short-lived unless they're person-to-person listings. Listings above 40 refined are mostly speculative positions, little if any activity will happen with those trades.
Websites
ScrapTF: still hanging on to buying at 38.77, selling at 38.88 at time of submission. As you might expect, supply has been bone dry for a considerable amount of time, and anything that is sold at 38.77 is quickly snapped up by people looking for a quick flip onto classified bots. Thinking their reluctance to move their range, at least in the last few days, would be because it would screw with item valuations for Tip of the Hats donations. Definitely an outlier but shows that the market has moved on to greener, higher altitude pastures.
STN-Trading: their range is at 40-40.44. At time of submission, approximately 100 keys were available (https://i.imgur.com/ykPFMRK.png). STN is a lot more bullish than most with their prices in the last few weeks, though this is likely so they can maintain at least some amount of supply and to protect against small wobbles both upwards and downwards.
Marketplace.tf (to USD): since acceptance of the current price (September 24th), median sale price has dipped from $1.84 to $1.77. It's entirely possible that this might simply be more key circulation from TotH 2018 donations speculatively being priced in, but I figure it's worth mentioning. Make of it what you will.
I believe that 40-40.11 refined would be a much better range, as that is what they are currently being bought and sold for (on average) in backpack.tf Classifieds. In fact, there is a buy order on keys for 40.11 refined currently so I believe this is slightly incorrect. Sorry.
If I made this 24 hours later, it might be worth an attempt. Time will tell if it's a temporary wobble upwards or if there's supporting momentum behind it.
I do not think keys are rising without reason, but I do feel that they won't continue to rise after the holiday season passes. It seems to always happen like this, around holidays key prices rise substantially but then they slowly decrease the rest of the year, however it always ends with the net price of a key rising.
the ratio of ref to keys is 6 : 1 so its not that. Its probably the low tier hats doing it. there is no incentive to destroy them so they start building up in numbers which causes their price to drop, but the price of them rarely changes due to them being so cheap so the price of ref changes instead. keys stay the same price almost always, because of the cost to bring new ones into the market. So its not keys getting higher in price but ref going down in price
It has nothing to do with low tier hats. The only actual reason why refined is decreasing in price is because of the quantity and the fact that nobody has a want or need for it besides trading. There is a surplus of craft weapons which will naturally cause the price of the key to increase and the price of refined to decrease. Supply and demand, it is basic economics.
It's became quantity over quality. Do you remember the old days? Where keys were under 16 ref? I wish for those days sometimes...
I remember them being 2.33 ref each or two craft hats. But times change.
since when were keys considered things of quality? The item itself has never changed ya dip
Since when? Refs cost around $0.1 - $0.2 back in the day, and having keys being a storage for those refs as they are today, you knew exactly how much was 1.3keys, 2.55keys, and so on... True that the item price never changed. But unless I'm mistaken, I think the ear buds were much more expensive than nowadays... You could store ~3.5keys (or more) in 1 ear buds... It was quality back then, hate all you want, I still remember those days.
If this passes I'm actually going to kill myself.
Deserves a pass, idk what you're talking about.
Friendly reminder that it isn't really keys going up in price, rather ref becoming more and more worthless due to its ever increasing amount.
Always nice seeing people disliking your comment and not explaining why. Really helps the discussion...
Please don't.
When people sell keys regularly they try to buy them for the least amount of ref and if they sell it, they do so with a tiny profit.
The automated trade bots however buy them for most ref and then sell them for slightly higher, continuously degrading the value of ref. There's nothing that can be done about this unfortunately, unless Valve bans some of them again.
inb4 30 downboats due to seething bot owners
this is so sad can we please legally kill bot owners
Update: Scrap.TF finally moved their rates up to buying for 39.88 and selling for 40.11. Supply has yet to show up however, still 0 keys.
Well, this is gonna be a whole lot harder now that TF2 Outpost is RIP. Let's take a swing at it anyway.
backpack.tf's Classifieds
On the buy side, there's plenty of listings for 39.88 refined. There do remain a few listings at 39.77 refined, but since sales are king, I'll expand more on that in a little bit. On the sell side, 40 refined is clearly king, and it's easy to understand why - it's a nice, round number. With both sides, there are definitely a few outliers (1 38 refined and 1 39 refined sell listings, both from humans; and 1 40 refined buy listing from a human) but that's standard fare.
Buyer Supplies
On first glance it seems that there's a split between 39.77 and 39.88 refined and you might think "well why not make 39.77 your low value". Let's have a look at a few 39.77 refined listings:
Listing #1 at 39.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/Q1PCWYA.png - has 1 key.
Listing #2 at 39.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/L55VMLH.png - has no keys.
Listing #3 at 39.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/z3Xwfcz.png - has 5 keys. Only one other listing also reports 5 keys.
Listing #4 at 39.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/vVtKd7q.png - has no keys.
Listing #5 at 39.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/ENvJtbk.png - has 1 key.
Though there are a few listings even lower still, those users probably have a whole lot of metal and no keys.
Now, let's look at the 39.88 refined listings:
Listing #1 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/w9jCygD.png - has 22 keys.
Listing #2 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/036TkB1.png - has 36 keys, moved up to 40 since screenshot.
Listing #3 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/Ojb3bEp.png - has 485 keys. Seems a little suspect but entirely plausible that it could hit its 500 cap.
Listing #4 at 39.88 refined: https://i.imgur.com/i16tSNw.png - has no keys. Listing appears to be new, and a little unprepared as it only has enough metal for one key to be sold.
There was one very quick bot listing at 40 refined (https://i.imgur.com/LtR7ccY.png) that was gone within minutes.
Between 39.77 and 39.88, the choice that users are going with is obvious.
Seller Supplies
As I alluded earlier, 40 refined is clearly king. Let's peek at the supplies of the sellers:
Listing #1 at 40 refined: https://i.imgur.com/rmTaW8s.png - has 5 keys; same profile as 39.77 ref listing #3. Rather wide margin.
Listing #2 at 40 refined: https://i.imgur.com/0azFR9a.png - has 30 keys. Still has all in inventory (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078788858), will be one to watch.
Listing #3 at 40 refined: https://i.imgur.com/SwER5ys.png - has 40 keys; same profile as 39.88 ref listing #2.
Listing #4 at 40 refined: https://i.imgur.com/TXM1rjp.png - has 23 keys.
Listings below 40 refined are also very short-lived unless they're person-to-person listings. Listings above 40 refined are mostly speculative positions, little if any activity will happen with those trades.
Websites
ScrapTF: still hanging on to buying at 38.77, selling at 38.88 at time of submission. As you might expect, supply has been bone dry for a considerable amount of time, and anything that is sold at 38.77 is quickly snapped up by people looking for a quick flip onto classified bots. Thinking their reluctance to move their range, at least in the last few days, would be because it would screw with item valuations for Tip of the Hats donations. Definitely an outlier but shows that the market has moved on to greener, higher altitude pastures.
STN-Trading: their range is at 40-40.44. At time of submission, approximately 100 keys were available (https://i.imgur.com/ykPFMRK.png). STN is a lot more bullish than most with their prices in the last few weeks, though this is likely so they can maintain at least some amount of supply and to protect against small wobbles both upwards and downwards.
Marketplace.tf (to USD): since acceptance of the current price (September 24th), median sale price has dipped from $1.84 to $1.77. It's entirely possible that this might simply be more key circulation from TotH 2018 donations speculatively being priced in, but I figure it's worth mentioning. Make of it what you will.
https://gyazo.com/86cced4234c710573ebbc9bdeb26de7f 40.11
Update: Scrap.TF finally moved their rates up to buying for 39.88 and selling for 40.11. Supply has yet to show up however, still 0 keys.
STN-Trading's range has gone down to 39.77 and 40.11, maintains the same 0.44 refined margin, has ~270 keys.
(relocated this here since it's a better spot to be in)
It's not much but here's some proof of sale at 40 ref for you to STN. Freshly sold ~10 minutes ago.
https://prnt.sc/l4vjhr
https://gyazo.com/4384da4cd98bf02f90e6255b3f2d57ba bought one for 39.88
Classifieds =/= Actual trades.
they may not be actual trades but if the prices are same,it would be supporting this suggestion
Sellers at 38 Ref In Bp.tf
That one 38 refined listing is an outlying human listing, the only one at that. Same goes for the one 39 listing.
as I pointed out in your suggestion, buyers clearly counter those very few sellers
hmm, i get it
Just sold one for 40.11, not sure if that should be included here. Unlimited Stock limit, btw.
Proof:
https://gyazo.com/df1557ca0af3a730bc30df53dbfd59b1
https://gyazo.com/69bd82816312622e6580fd5370bcbb9a
Cheers!
I believe that 40-40.11 refined would be a much better range, as that is what they are currently being bought and sold for (on average) in backpack.tf Classifieds. In fact, there is a buy order on keys for 40.11 refined currently so I believe this is slightly incorrect. Sorry.
If I made this 24 hours later, it might be worth an attempt. Time will tell if it's a temporary wobble upwards or if there's supporting momentum behind it.
I do not think keys are rising without reason, but I do feel that they won't continue to rise after the holiday season passes. It seems to always happen like this, around holidays key prices rise substantially but then they slowly decrease the rest of the year, however it always ends with the net price of a key rising.
the ratio of ref to keys is 6 : 1 so its not that. Its probably the low tier hats doing it. there is no incentive to destroy them so they start building up in numbers which causes their price to drop, but the price of them rarely changes due to them being so cheap so the price of ref changes instead. keys stay the same price almost always, because of the cost to bring new ones into the market. So its not keys getting higher in price but ref going down in price
It has nothing to do with low tier hats. The only actual reason why refined is decreasing in price is because of the quantity and the fact that nobody has a want or need for it besides trading. There is a surplus of craft weapons which will naturally cause the price of the key to increase and the price of refined to decrease. Supply and demand, it is basic economics.
It's became quantity over quality. Do you remember the old days? Where keys were under 16 ref? I wish for those days sometimes...
I remember them being 2.33 ref each or two craft hats. But times change.
since when were keys considered things of quality? The item itself has never changed ya dip
Since when? Refs cost around $0.1 - $0.2 back in the day, and having keys being a storage for those refs as they are today, you knew exactly how much was 1.3keys, 2.55keys, and so on... True that the item price never changed. But unless I'm mistaken, I think the ear buds were much more expensive than nowadays... You could store ~3.5keys (or more) in 1 ear buds... It was quality back then, hate all you want, I still remember those days.
If this passes I'm actually going to kill myself.
Deserves a pass, idk what you're talking about.
Friendly reminder that it isn't really keys going up in price, rather ref becoming more and more worthless due to its ever increasing amount.
Always nice seeing people disliking your comment and not explaining why. Really helps the discussion...
Please don't.
When people sell keys regularly they try to buy them for the least amount of ref and if they sell it, they do so with a tiny profit.
The automated trade bots however buy them for most ref and then sell them for slightly higher, continuously degrading the value of ref. There's nothing that can be done about this unfortunately, unless Valve bans some of them again.
inb4 30 downboats due to seething bot owners