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Rest of u r bums so I’ll make this myself :^) - ѕιи
Refined Metal
Key price https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5bbf50cacf6c750c2e5027a8 - 39.94 refined metal.
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Marketplace.tf Key sales for the past 3 days.
•Oct 12, 2018 - http://prntscr.com/l63bqn
~$1.78
•Oct 13, 2018 - http://prntscr.com/l63bxp
~$1.78
•Oct 14, 2018 - http://prntscr.com/l63c2m
~$1.77-1.78
Taking $1.78 for keys
$1.78*0.9 = ~$1.60
$1.60 / 39.94 = ~$0.04 cents per refined.
Taking $0.04
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Marketplace Refined sales.
https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal
http://prntscr.com/l63cw8
Buyers at ~$0.05 and Sellers at ~$0.06
After tax around $0.04-$0.05 per refined. Not main proof but something to consider.
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Paypal Buyers and Sellers
Sold some keys for $1.80 based on trust and post.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/40370-naknaks-keys-179-no-rep-needed-1000-in-stock/
https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197969363424 (for mods, check edit history of post)
1.8/39.94 = ~$0.045 per refined.
https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198063345374
http://prntscr.com/l63lsv
~1k keys @ $1.70 = ~$0.04 per refined.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/43735-selling-tf2-keys-via-paypal-173key-trusted-seller/
https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049369308
~74 keys at $1.73 each = ~$0.04 per refined.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68322-wts-keys-180/
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68497-skeys-at-180-each-have-100/
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/57779-selling-tf2-keys-157-euro-each/
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47271-300-rep-rockets-keys-for-185-via-paypal/
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68372-skeys-for-paypal-18-per-key/
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68368-wts-keys-via-pp-178-usd/
AFAIK nothing recent from these guys
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68514-selling-500-keys-170-each/ - Recent post with selling price that supports ~$0.04.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/39876-b-tf2-keys168-ref0045paypalamazon-whole-backpacks-rep-for-days/
Buying keys at $1.68 and refined at $0.045 (supports)
There’s not much to go off from Forums apparently, but it’s looking like ref is gonna be $0.04.
Final Price: $0.04
Just a quick reminder for anyone who is confused: https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/61165-refined-suggestions-and-site-usd-values/
Refined sales on marketplace are not considreed due to the limitations of sellers who are able to sell refined there.
In general the key value in $ seems to go down, and the key price in refined seems to go up still, which is covered here by the proof. This seems to be the best approximation of the market and thus I'm accepting.