Sale 1:

Sold for $22.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/259;5;u18

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-10-10 - $22.99 / $1.78 = 12.92 keys

X = 13

Sale 2:

Sold for 9 keys + 10 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253940521#!/compare/1535155200/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/item/422996135

X = 9.5

Sale 3:

Sold for 9 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198226262240#!/compare/1537920000/1538179200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436103721#!/compare/1538092800/1538179200

https://backpack.tf/item/3320055100

X = 9

Sale 4:

Bought from scrap for 9 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1539129600/1539216000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400258797#!/compare/1539129600/1539216000

https://backpack.tf/item/304973873

X = 9

Sales 5:

Bought from scrap for ~9 keys, then sold to scrap for 8 keys + ~1 key in metal. Both sales visible in these compare links.

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1537833600/1537920000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283091524#!/compare/1537833600/1537920000

X = 9 (2x)

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 8 keys + 12 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436103721#!/compare/1538611200/1538697600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327078449#!/compare/1538611200/1538697600

https://backpack.tf/item/3320055100

https://i.imgur.com/EgFVaql.png

X = 8.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/3320055100 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/422996135 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/304973873 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/223262148 (#5

https://backpack.tf/item/285097237 - scrap storage

#1

Bulk for pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019470171#!/compare/1533945600/1537660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202998823#!/compare/1537574400/1537660800

#2

Sold with taunt for grail taunt

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202998823#!/compare/1537574400/1537660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198226262240#!/compare/1537574400/1537660800

Using on grail taunt

#3

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253940521#!/compare/1536537600/1536624000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155413851#!/compare/1535932800/1536624000

#4

Probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400258797#!/compare/1539216000/1539302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198432461884#!/compare/1539129600/1539216000

The next few sales in the item’s history were definitely gambled, given the dumb names on the users

#5

Untraceable, bought from scrap, then sold back to scrap.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1538179200/1538265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280667112#!/compare/1537920000/1538265600

Can’t see anything when it was bought from scrap, but we can see half a key in ref when it sold to scrap. I don’t doubt that it sold for 8 keys and the remaining amount of ref here.

#6

Scrap sale involving a Bubbling Gatsby

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1538697600/1538784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151064563#!/compare/1538784000/1538956800

#7

Probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151064563

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119149660#!/compare/1539388800/1539475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312035994#!/compare/1538956800/1539475200

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/NmX1QH0.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3320055100 - 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/422996135 - 10 keys

Sales at:

8.5

9 (4x)

9.5

13

13 is an obvious outlier, excluding.

8.5 is a single sale to a quickbuyer, excluding.

9 is too common to be excluded, even if a bunch of them were scrap purchases/sales (which they are no longer paying this much for, most likely). Keeping 9.

Going with 9-9.5.