Suggestion: Burning Flames Tundra Top at 100–140 keys

Price Suggestion

~227 keys

burning

71 votes up

18 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Wed, 05 Dec 18 13:14:21 +0000 by the submitter.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Possibly my longest suggestion ever. Don't think any hat has sold as crazily as this one in the last 60 days.

Sale 1: GE Winter Woodsman

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024614290#!/compare/1534896000/1534982400

Taking only real applicable sale here and putting it at 105

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047918122#!/compare/1535328000/1535414400

Sale 2: 95 pure + DBD tundra top

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120467518#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

DBD tundra = 43 keys

138 keys

Sale 3: 97 pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083520022#!/compare/1537142400/1537228800

Sale 4: Spec Ks Aussie Scatter + Pro Ks Aussie Eyelander + Aussie sniper + DBD Bloke's bucket + Abduction hfoha + 25 pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091179527#!/compare/1534550400/1534723200

Scatter - 23.5

eyelander - 30

sniper - 22

HFOHA - 13

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/A%20Head%20Full%20of%20Hot%20Air/Tradable/Craftable/91

Taking 13, as taking quickbuys would round up anyhow

Bloke's bucket - 15.5

https://marketplace.tf/shopitem/m9s/181;5;u62/

$29, 15.5 keys

129 keys

Sale 5: 102 pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061914564#!/compare/1534723200/1534809600

Sale 6: 117 pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140010255#!/compare/1536710400/1536796800

Sale 7: Unable to mini a Roboactive Firewall Helmet.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219980724#!/compare/1537401600/1537488000

Sale 8: Unable to mini a 1/1 strange killawatt caribou.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261521812#!/compare/1536969600/1537056000

Sale 9: Unusable, unable to take minis on certain items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044203779#!/compare/1532649600/1532736000

Sale 10: Unusable, outlier

https://marketplace.tf/items/30976;5;u13

Clear outlier, seller at $224 at the moment.

So here we have:

97, 102, 105, 117, 129, 138

97 seems a bit unreasonable due to quickbuyers so close, 102 seems fine.

Sellers @ 150 for eight days.

Quickbuyers @ 90.

Nothing on marketplace.

Taking 102-138

Rounding 100-140.

Cheers.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1540598400/1540684800

MW isotope lightning rod, BS isotope forest fire, GBH ze goggles

do with that as you will, but 100 seems stupid low for an all-class BF that isn't a nickle noble lol

well, sold in under 12 hours for overpay. my b/o was 145.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1540684800/1540771200 35+34+53+35ish

SS norseman which he had bought for 35 pure only a few hours before https://imgur.com/a/EXmvrn0 , pro ausi scatter 34, duped scorching whoopee buyer at 53, SS ninja buyer 29 last suggest 40 - in case compares are messed https://imgur.com/a/0gHdT2w

item histories;

https://backpack.tf/item/4662153578

https://backpack.tf/item/5538333299

https://backpack.tf/item/6555863246

https://backpack.tf/item/269690981

that confirms my suspicion that 100 is super low.

downvoting

Three of six sales are within five keys of the lower range.

i'd say obvious quicksells of an unpriced hat

selling it under 12 hours says a lot too for OVER what you suggest as a top end

i could quicksell the stuff and get your top end in under 12 hours. uh wat :/

obviously I'm not biased, as I don't even own one now lol

3 150s sat unsold for 9 days, 140 wouldn't do much better imo.

150 keys... 9 days ... there a point there? that's not even unsold at that time frame for that tier :P

9 days unsold at 12, ok then you'd have a point

several sellers now dropped to 139 though. this is lookin better now :/

guess I got super lucky gettin over 140 :D

Yes. Yes you did

under 12 hours it sold, you can see how I thought this was low :)

but changing my vote to upvote now seeing the new sellers

Buys and sells seem to have evened out to this range a month after posting

https://marketplace.tf/items/30976;5;u13 - Sold for $237.99 when Keys were $1.76 (135 Keys) and $238.97 when Keys were ~$1.74 each (137 Keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352760087#!/compare/1540857600/1540944000 - Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078777084#!/compare/1541721600/1541808000 - Strange PE Coldsnap (could price that)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198397970914#!/compare/1540512000/1540684800 - 2 Weapons and a GBH Goggles

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1540684800/1540771200 - Duped Scorching Whoopee + Stormy Ninja + Pro KS Aussie Scatter

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130948401#!/compare/1540771200/1540944000 - Bulk

The Goggles sale is probably around 130 Keys and the Whoopee sale is probably around 140 Keys.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Also...

Your 97 and 102 sales took a day each.

Woodsman Sales

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081361662#!/compare/1539993600/1540080000 - ~140 - 150 Keys of Unusuals

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074181346#!/compare/1542067200/1542844800 - Added 10 Keys for a Duped Flaming Lantern TC

105 is too low for the Woodsman.

I guess with this in mind the low end is starting to look pretty low. Newer sales also back up higher values. I suppose it's not a bad idea to tighten the range here to 117-140

140 can't be an upper range either, 139 unsold for a month

I mean several data points back up that end :P its easily solved here by not rounding and going 117-138.

Generally, 1 month unsold doesnt necessarily mean that nothing above it could possibly be valid, especially not since the values are essentially identical (i.e sellers around ~140 dont say ~140 is impossible to get; if the high end was 180 and sellers at ~140 would've hit a month it'd have been a more valid concern).

I wouldn't mind unsolds at 140 if there weren't multiple under it

In my assessment above I considered 139 to be ~140 (the difference is negligible/roundable here).

The way unsolds are treated in this regard depends on multiple factors aside from just how long it has been selling: the main point made was that it can still be a common trading point; both sellers are mp sellers (and obviously undercutting since lowest sellers were at 140 earlier). On that very same marketplace, two sold around that value too (linked above), which indicates a market saturation rather than an inability to sell. In that month they were up, there were 4 listed around 140. two sold, two are still there. It shows not only that that as a data point sells, but also that mptf as a medium sells at that value, meaning technically you're not dealing with unsolds, but with a market that hasn't fully sold out within a month.