10 recent sales on this guy

Y3ezz said i could take it if i credited him, so that i shall

sale 1)

sold for a sunbeams détective noir (in-date at 56), a cauldron bubbles towering pillar of hats (51) and 160 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1540080000/1540166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011507712#!/compare/1540080000/1540166400 - ???

51 + 56 + 160 = 267 keys

buyer at 250 and 260

excluding

Minis:

cauldron bubbles towering pillar of hats

https://marketplace.tf/items/135;5;u39

$89.90 marketplace.tf

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-10-17 = keys were $1.76

$89.90 / $1.76 = 51.08 = 51 keys

it's not low, the hat is mega overpriced. listed for 2 YEARS at 82 (holy shit 2 years)

only other sale to combat 52 is bulk, anyway

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1539734400/1539820800

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sale 2)

sold for 126 keys pure, 25 keys pure, 159 keys pure, and 4 australiums (together worth 12 + 12 + 12 + 13 = 49)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169939863#!/compare/1540080000/1540166400

no second side to compare since it was from different tradeit.gg bots that remove tons of stuff at once

126 + 25 + 159 + 49 = 359 keys

sale 3)

sold for a hellfire warhood (?), an arcana bruce's bonnet (in-date at 203), a scorching flames tyrantium helmet (?) and 68 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142656307#!/compare/1534809600/1535068800 - ???

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231082180#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

no warhood mini

excluding as a high outlier

sale 4)

sold for a bonzo the all-gnawing hunter in the darkness (?) and a minimal wear isotope park pigmented rocket launcher (in-date at 185)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231082180#!/compare/1539648000/1540080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304815912#!/compare/1539907200/1540080000

shitty micro on pullover

https://imgur.com/a/5Ff0oyX buyer reselling for much much less than he paid, excluding

Minis:

bonzo the all-gnawing hunter in the darkness

sold along with 200 pure and ~? key sweets for a spellbound prehistoric pullover

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043566764#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600 - ??? no keys shown but they were definitely involved

spellbound prehistoric pullover micro

sold along with a mega strike zoomin' broom (11) and ~3 key sweets for a circling heart virtual viewfinder (?)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803829026#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800

circling heart virtual viewfinder micro micro

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803829026#!/compare/1532736000/1532822400

https://marketplace.tf/items/30140;5;u19

$808.25 marketplace.tf

http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-08-25 = keys were $1.90

$808.25 / $1.9 = 425.39 = 425 keys

lower than buy orders

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sale 5)

https://marketplace.tf/items/30177;5;u14

$608.15 marketplace.tf

608.15/1.78=341.657303

excluding

sale 6)

???

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045043625#!/compare/1540166400/1540252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117090444#!/compare/1540080000/1540166400

excluding

sale 7)

???

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1540166400/1540252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1540166400/1540252800

excluding

sale 8)

300 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1540166400/1540252800 - histories match on set of 300

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1540166400/1540252800 - ???

sold in under a day

excluding

Sale 9: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002186909#!/compare/1540684800/1540771200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045783975#!/compare/1540598400/1540771200 histories dont match, then it got scammed :/

Worth mentioning: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322876605#!/compare/1540598400/1540771200 strange one sold for 50k and pe ke, would support the drop here

Sale 10: (credits to hugh): https://marketplace.tf/shopitem/-hugh-/30177;5;u14

sold for 1000$, aussie sniper and orange bubbles zoomin broomin

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1541894400/1541980800

https://imgur.com/a/nX5JIxq

Keys were 1.77 , 1000/1.77=564.971751

Mini for taunt: https://marketplace.tf/items/30672;5;u3018 sold for 46.39, keys were 1.81, 46.39/1.81=25.6298343

23+26+565=614, rounding to 615

sales: 267, 359, 400+, 800+? (buyer selling for sub 400), 342, 300, 615

267 is low, buyers at the time paid more. 800+ is clearly an outlier, buyer is reselling for half of that, so excluding

That leaves us with 267, 300, 342, 359, and 400+ (no minis for some), 600. Given hugh was able to sell for 1000$ + sweets in around a week of having it, and theres higher sales to support that, not to mention that alot of the low sales were buy orders, or bought and flipped to buy orders/bots, ill be excluding them as low, despite being a common trading point. Gonna be taking 615 flat as of now.

Thanks!