Price Suggestion
Harvest Moon Brown Bomber
Submitted by LeROY
~1975 keys
harvest
Unusual Brown Bomber Harvest Moon
48 votes up
7 votes down
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This suggestion was accepted by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

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Comments

Re-suggesting my previous submission, and ignoring other suggestion.

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Sale 1: 11.Nov on mplc $340/$1.78 key price ≈191 Keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/671;5;u45

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

Was listed @400 for a day or 3

https://imgur.com/a/RMphLmd

Excluding for being QS

I was not aware that 10-15% under sellers price was considered QS/QB and I apologize for any distress I have caused

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Sale 2: 1:1 for Spellbound Horrific Headsplitter

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5bd200f244325a0f0d44f6ff

Excluding

Spellbound Headsplitter was another QS

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Sale 3: 17.Nov on mplc $450/$1.74 Key Price

https://marketplace.tf/items/671;5;u45

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

=258.6≈260 Keys

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Using Sale 3 to set price ≈260 Keys

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I only use what proof I can gather when I make a suggestion! I do not have an agenda when making suggestions nor use them as a weapon against anyone so please STOP reacting like I (backhand)slapped you mom cause a hat you own is dropping.

If any of my suggestions are so bad/wrong that its angering you just post a screen, have other party confirm trades, anything that proves me wrong or you right -and Ill close it. Stating same random "facts" over and over is worse than "bad" proof. Any "obvious/ridiculous" suggestion should be fairly easy to shut-down... without shedding a tear or being petty.


....THERE IS ALSO NO NEED TO START SUGGESTIONS BY TAKING A SH*T ON THE HAT -CALLING IT UGLY/CANCER/... Dropping a hat 100s of keys should be satisfactory enough if you really have such strong emotions against a hat


Oh how I wish it was possible to (down)vote suggestions sometimes :P

    The issue with these suggestions seems to be that these seem to be tradebacks, although I'm not sure that's the case. It looks like the guy that bought it with the splitter dumped it in the nov 11 sale (so for less than 200), and it also seems like the buyer there resold it back to IKFF. I'm asking this on his suggestion as well to see if he can confirm; it may also be that we miss a history here.


    If the situation here is as I think it is, then this suggestion will actually be fine, but I'll be awaiting the confirmation from the other suggestion.


    On a separate note, I've seen various definitions of quicksales here and on the other suggestions on this and have noticed that there's a lot of confusion around all that. I tend to think in outliers rather than quicksales in order to avoid it, but I suppose its not a bad idea to clear things up here:


    Common misconceptions about quicksales:

    - If something actually quicksold, it does not mean it's necessarily unusable, it just means it's more likely to be a low outlier.

    - For pricing purposes, whether something is a quicksale or not does NOT depend on or correlate with the discount given compared to the current (usually outdated) value, but rather relates to the time it took to sell. If something is priced at 60 and takes 2 months to sell for 30 it's not a quicksale because it's "50% off", it just means the old value was far too high. This does not mean that the old value can't matter at all (see below.)

    - Someone advertising something as a quicksale does NOT automatically make the resulting sale a quicksale.

    - Quicksales are pure sales most of the time, but not always. It is often said that something can't possibly quicksell for items, but it can. This could be the case when it sold for max heads or australiums (where the hat is typically instantly offered on them because of their pure value), but also when they're offered on unusuals that are easier to sell (such as miscs, downgrade trades or simply trades for items that have higher buy orders than the offered hat). Items that sell within a day in these kinds of trades are equally likely to be low outliers, and could be considered quicksales, especially when the return items are actually sold to buyers afterwards.


    How quicksales work in suggestions:

    - What we consider quicksales are hats that sell within a short period of time significantly below other recent data points; if a hat has a couple of recent sales around 50, and one also sold within a day for 40, then 40 can be considered a low outlier because of how fast it sold.

    - As said, quicksales and low outliers are not the same. A hat that sells within a day could also just be a lucky sale; the abovementioned case only works when there's just one data point at 40: if it has sales around 50, 2 at 40 and one also quicksold for 40, it doesn't mean 40 should be excluded.from the range. The same goes for when a hat has 10 quicksales at 40 and nothing else - in that case, 40 is clearly the common trading point, regardless of how fast they sold.

    - A situation in which the current value could matter is where current is 100 and there is only one sale for 50, with no other sellers or sales to go by. In such a case, it will actually matter if something quicksold or not. If it sold within a day for instance, it is best not to update. If it took months to sell, it means it's just an indication that current is/was far too high.

    - Another example of the above is if a hat is currently priced at 50 and has only one sale at, say, 60 which happened in a day. If that's the only data point, it means 60 may be low, but in that case, it is better than its current price of 50. If aside from the fast sale at 60 it also has sales at 80, then 80 will be better.


    These are just examples; we're reviewing situations as such case by case. This just serves as a clarification :P

      Good detailed clarification, hope it reaches(and teaches) more users than me :)

        Heh, that's what I'm here for.


        I've found the history belonging to the other sale here:

        https://backpack.tf/item/1202988484

        it doesn't show up yet because it's new owner's backpack hasn't registered it yet. On the other suggestion I've also received confirmation that the other two trades (the headsplitter and the 340$ sale) were in fact a tradeback, making this the only valid sale here.