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Attempting to update the price of the Strange Stormy Storm KE, which isn't leaving my inventory--like ever--but still, the price is 2 years outdated so I might as well try to refresh the price in case any others appear back on the market!
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Recent Trade 1: Non-Strange Stormy Storm KE + 8 Keys for Strange Stormy Storm KE
BP.TF Compare
There are quickbuyers of (regular) Stormy Storm KE's at 45k and sellers at 56k. Hat is currently priced at 48-74, upper end is definitely too high, so taking roughly mid-way point of buyers/sellers and lower end of bp.tf price of 52k for the non-strange Stormy KE. Leans more towards sellers due to bp.tf suggestion leaning high, plus non-QS traded prices tend to learn closer to sellers than quickbuyers.
Thus, this trade values Strange Stormy Storm KE at 60k
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Recent Trade 2: Stormy Storm KE + 9 Keys for Strange TF Logo Woodsman
BP.TF Compare
Logo Woodsman is a bit weird to price. It's currently valued (non-Strange) version at 96 keys, but there is a current seller at 76 keys. The rarity of the hat (only 4 in existence) may also play a part in the price.
Furthermore, there's a Strange Searing Plasma Woodsman asking 65k (9 in existence), but a Strange C9 Woodsman (14 in existence) asking 90k.
I'm not comfortable placing a price on the Strange Logo Woodsman since the price seems all over the place, so perhaps this price suggestion if approved can be used to update the Logo Woodsman price.
Overall though, this trade doesn't seem to be an outlier either way.
If anyone has any suggestions on trying to make this trade assign a value to the Stormy Storm KE, please let me know in the comments--I can't find a good way to make it work.
Thus, this trade values Strange Stormy Storm KE at N/A
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Recent Trade 3: C9 Pencil Pusher + Collector Prof. Gunslinger + Stormy Storm Burning Question + 1 Key
BP.TF Compare
(It says acquired separately, but if you check those items you'll see the next owner of each item is the previous owner of the KE)
C9 Pencil Pusher has quickbuyers at 35, BP.TF values the hat at 36-41 keys price. Thus, taking midpoint of 38 keys value.
Collector Prof. Gunslinger has a listed seller (currently) at 18k, quickbuyers at 12.5k, and Steam Market sells at ~$40-50 Steam Wallet (ignoring all of the quickbuy order sales, which are selling below bp.tf quickbuyers in keys...). Shine/Killstreaker nothing super special, so taking conservative price of 16 keys.
Stormy Storm Burning Question is unpriced. Current SS BQ seller at 22.5k, but comparing against similar-tier effects, SS BQ is likely worth slightly more than Fetti/Planets/Logo, etc which are asking ~17-18k. Taking conservative estimate of 20k.
Total value: 38 + 16 + 20 + 1 = 75k value
Thus, this trade values Strange Stormy Storm KE at 75k
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The other two "recent" sales seem to be quicksold and quickbought off of a trade bot within 1 day, so ignoring those trades. I can't also track down exactly what they traded for, but it seems to be at lowest in the ~50k range, slightly below suggestion since, as mentioned--they were quicksells/buys.
BP.TF Compare 1 (~50 keysish? Too many items moved around to exactly pinpoint)
BP.TF Compare 2 (~Stormy Storm TC-ish = ~55k? No Strange Stormy Storm KE, but the items gained are the items traded from Recent Trade 3, so it's likely that this guy traded ~Stormy Storm TC (more or less, can't actually pin down exactly what was traded for the S. Stormy Storm KE from the bot) for the Strange Stormy KE, which was promptly traded in Recent Trade 3 that can be pinned down).
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Finally, looking at the prior suggestion (from 2 years ago) and looking at the history of the other known Strange Stormy Storm KE shows that the other KE has been in the same person's inventory since January 2018, so ignoring any possible trades from that KE for this price suggestion since they would be outdated.
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Thus, suggesting a price of 60k-75k for this hat. Which makes sense--slightly higher than the current Stormy Storm KE price (of 48-74) since this variant is Strange.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170242226#!/compare/1531612800/1531699200 ("recent" trade 3) is way too old
Considering that this hat doesn't get traded often at all, is ~4 months really "too old"? If this was a regular Stormy Storm KE, I'd agree since that hat gets traded decently often, but I'm not so convinced that we should ignore a "legit" priceable trade that is slightly older for a very infrequently traded hat.
I could be wrong, but that's what I thought which is why I included it.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/6033-rules-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
Up to 3 months is the oldest you can use, per the rules. July is well over 4 months. so yes, its too old, if its not priceable without the july sale, better to leave it outdated than to give it an inaccurate price.
Eh, I get the idea, but it seems kind of weird/even more inaccurate to ignore a sale for a rare hat that is just outside the "valid time limit" when the prior price suggestion (i.e. leaving it at old price) is 2 years old and way more outdated. Not to mention it doesn't make sense that the current "old" price of the Strange version is actually less than the value of the non-Strange variant now--sort of like "pick the lesser of two inaccuracies". IDK, feels like a judgement call area that could be swayed in either direction. If more people/mods say that Recent Sale 3 should be kicked, then I'll probably just re-suggest at flat 60 since that would technically be the only recent trade, since the Woodsman is just really wack to try and pin down.
Not to mention I pseudo-did a mini-suggestion by cross-checking the current prices of the items that were traded in Recent Trade 3, which is what the rules suggest to do.
Alright, this suggestion is nicely formatted, but you're pricing things the wrong way.
You don't price hats that are in-date, unless you provide SALES and PROOF that the in-date is wrong.
Secondly, you don't price hats based on rarity or compare different hats with different effects. It has no relevance. You need to provide PROOF of SALES.
What do you mean "in-date"? The price of this hat is 2 years old. If you're referring to taking unusual prices for the hats that were traded in the "Recent Trades", how else to estimate? (i.e. am I supposed to price the C9 Pencil Pusher/Stormy KE/Stormy Burning Question differently?)
I don't even use the Woodsman sale to price since the price of that hat is all over the place and hard to pin down anyways--even suggesting that the Woodsman may be able to be priced using this hat's price. The references to other effects and stuff is to show that the prices seem to be quite "random" even, which is why I don't try to grab a price for the Woodsman. (Not to mention the only sale of the Strange Logo Huntsman is this KE trade, since the prior owner had the hat for 1+ years)
If you're referring to the Stormy Storm Burning Question, it's hard to track down. I can only find this "recent" trade which suggest that maybe it was traded for 25k, which is even higher than my conservative estimate (can't track down the most recent trade through bp.tf compare, but can track the second-most-recent one).
BP.TF Compare (the keys that were removed were likely for the Strange Sniper Botkiller, if you check this guy's profile you'll see he is quickbuying them at the exact same price).
So...am I supposed to use 25k for the Burning Question, even though there is a seller at 22.5k, for instance? There's got to be a balance somewhere in the middle...
As said before the 3rd sale is out-dated, thus cannot be used. The 1st one is okay. The 2nd should be used to price the woodsman, as this is the only sale for it and 1/1 in existence.
Alright, closing this suggestion because it's only one recent trade and the only other reasonable priceable trade has been deemed to be "too outdated" (though I still disagree as a judgement call--just barely outside time limits, for a very rarely traded hat, in a pretty slow economy, but w/e).