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The Dark Doorway A Hat to Kill For
Bought for 175 keys pure.
Compare link:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054198170#!/compare/1542412800/1542499200
Another sale https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252119448#!/compare/1541203200/1541462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026926990#!/compare/1544400000/1545696000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071805624#!/compare/1545609600/1545696000
Another new sale - cant trace it though.
The sale you linked is significantly lower than the suggested value here (sub-100 probably; question has a possible mini at 50)
This'd either need a large range or more sales to determine the outlier. Whether or not Id be okay with a range will depend on what the lower sale ends up at