Time for a key update. Never done that before.

New price: 41.77 - 41.88 ref

_________________________________________________________

backpack.tf's Classifieds

Plenty of bots buying for 41.66 ref. There are a few human buy orders above that as usual.

Bots are selling at 41.88 ref.

First buy orders at 41.77 ref have shown up, two of them already have 6 keys in stock each. https://imgur.com/a/UGrBVYY

_________________________________________________________

Buyer Supplies

Fair few of buyers are at 41.55, so let's have a look at a few 41.55 ref listings:

Listing #1 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/xKDazxP - has 12 keys.

Listing #2 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/Cq62MGs - has no keys.

Listing #3 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/b9VUeX9 - has no keys.

Listing #4 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/ofceglO - has 3 keys.

Listing #5 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/EMli3Fc - has 4 keys.

Listing #6 at 41.55 ref: https://imgur.com/a/pVhZKiM - has 1 key.

Most bots here have 700-1,200 ref, so no question about being able to buy keys.

Listings below 41.55 are unlikely to buy any keys.

Now let's look at the 41.66 ref listings:

Listing #1 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/PDanP9h - has no keys.

Listing #2 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/cYSkuMj - has no keys.

Listing #3 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/tJPgwx7 - has 3 keys.

Listing #4 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/DQ341fa - has 7 keys.

Listing #5 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/V5dyLK3 - has no keys.

Listing #6 at 41.66 ref: https://imgur.com/a/8XxWW8B- has no keys.

Interestingly neither 41.55 nor 41.66 seems to buy a lot. All the bots have around 100-200 ref, so enough to buy several keys.

41.55 and 41.66 not selling very well suggests these are low.

_________________________________________________________

Seller Supplies

Majority of sellers are at 41.88, so let's have a look at the supplies of the sellers:

Listing #1 at 41.88 ref: https://imgur.com/a/kyH3mWV - has 11 keys

Listing #2 at 41.88 ref: https://imgur.com/a/9i7jrNu - has 5 keys

Listing #3 at 41.88 ref: https://imgur.com/a/GehqCiT - has 2 keys

Listing #4 at 41.88 ref: https://imgur.com/a/lobmNa4- has 3 keys

Listing #5 at 41.88 ref: https://imgur.com/a/4Lr70lR - has 3 keys

A few hours later these were mostly gone: https://imgur.com/a/Qt5I9nN

No listings at 42 yet.

Listings below 40 refined are also very short-lived unless they're person-to-person listings. Listings above 40 refined are mostly speculative positions, little if any activity will happen with those trades.

_________________________________________________________

Websites

ScrapTF: Buying for 39.77 ref, selling for 40 ref at the time of submission. Supply is of course 0. https://imgur.com/a/cUGwXr1

STN-Trading: Buying for 41.66 ref, selling for 42.11 ref at the time of writing this. Supply is 123 keys. Seems like 42.11 is too high. https://imgur.com/a/YZ3Sll5

A few hours later they have updated their prices to buying at 42.33 and selling at 42.66, which is above anything bp.tf classies would suggest. They're looking ahead appearently.

Marketplace.tf: Sales in the past month have been around 1.71$-1.78$. Current trend is downwards. Bad news for refined metal. https://imgur.com/a/71OmuiQ

_________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________

SUMMARY

Buyers at 41.55 and 41.66 aren't exactly successful. Excluding.

New buyers at 41.77 are successful. Including.

Sellers at 41.88 are successful. Including.

No sellers at 42.

Stn.tf at 42.11 ref appearently unsuccessful. Excluding.

Going with 41.77 - 41.88 ref.