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4th times a charm. Credits to Torb for modest mini.
Back again! Excluding outdated sale, updating range, and providing mini for modest.
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200
Time warp team captain (480) = burning gibus (?) + collectors mantreads (45) + 72 fresh brewed (4.75) + spec ks Australium sticky (13.5) + blizzard inspector (13) + pro ks vintage luger (6.2) + strange pro ks direct hit (3.6) + strange disciplinary action (3) + non-craftable duck journal (1.36) + minimal wear pink elephant sticky (1.6) + 10 keys
Tldr; All prices are based on lowest sellers. Team captain sold for gibus + 102 keys sweets. Therefore valuing the gibus at 378 keys. Rounding to 380 keys for neatness.
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198190084707#!/compare/1537920000/1538092800
Burning Gibus = burning modest (187)* + blizzardy stainless (15.5) + stormy mancer (61) + aces antlers (83) + screaming Tiger kazotsky (28)*
Mini for modest:Unclear with so many dupes, quickbuyers at 155 keys, lowest seller at 210 keys. https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Modest%20Pile%20of%20Hat/Tradable/Craftable/13
https://marketplace.tf/items/139;5;u13 modest mini
sold for 313.9$, keys were 1.68 on the day
313.9/1.68=186.845238, could be rounded to 187, and used as a mini for it!
Tiger kazotsky:lowest seller at 28 keys. Quickbuyers at 23.
https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Modest%20Pile%20of%20Hat/Tradable/Craftable/13
Sale values the Gibus at a rounded 370
Overall:The Gibus is definitely low. Only 2 recent sales between 370-380. Classifieds between 380-400. Supporting this, a sale verging on 4 months old was roughly ~365 keys.
In sale one:
Pricing everything based ‘on lowest seller’ in any suggestion would lead to some extremely interesting results. For example:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5be2f59ecf6c751da76f0ae6
Sellers for this didn’t drop below 260 until a week after the suggestion was accepted, which was five weeks after it was made.
If you took lowest seller there on a mini, price would have been inaccurate. Same thing with collectors gunboats here, you’re assuming they’ll sell at backpack price in full pure, which, after a month unsold, is unlikely to be the case.
Close this and try to resuggest when hats and expensive items are repriced, or reprice then yourself, then come back.
Collectors gunboats: Sold for 79.99 USD on the 8th of December. Keys were 1.68 on average, therefore guboats = 47.6 keys. Pricing the gunboats at the lowest seller seems fair.
httpss://marketplace.tf/items/133;14/Collector's%20Gunboats
You can't use sale 1, it's a big bulk. Where's mini for Blizz Pot, Stormy Mancer's, modest should get a full suggestion looking at the market and Taunt needs a mini too.
bumping this
I'd love if either of you could help with finding a mini for the stormy mancer since the histories are hard to trace and I don't have premium. Appreciate the bump though.
Finally found time for this, sorry guys.
*Mini for blizzardy pot:
https://marketplace.tf/items/98;5;u30
Sold for 28 USD on the 8th of October. Keys were 1.8 at the time sale. When rounding this sale works out it be 15.5 keys (in-line with the current range). Cementing this, quickbuyers at 13.5 keys. A difference in price for the pot would negligibly effect the overall price.
https://marketplace.tf/items/316;5;u29
https://backpack.tf/item/1122240461 Mancer has a sale here around 64 keys; may be a tad high. seller at 60 atm, but that won't be that far off.
New sales here:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012504506#!/compare/1546473600/1546732800 bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012504506#!/compare/1546992000/1547164800 PE stash (seems to be an outlier given the other two sales).
There's a very young seller at 345; I was going to handle this yesterday but needed time to check minis on stuff. At that time, the seller was not yet there (thats how recent it is). Given that this suggestion is sorta overdue, I'm fine with this for now, with the notion that it may be slightly high.
As for the comments above:
- Taking sellers on non-unusuals such as australiums and mid-tier vintages is fine. Gunboats were indate when this was suggested, so that'd never have been an issue. Be wary that on rarer or higher tier collectors items, minis should be more extensive, but these gunboats are not a problem here.
- Sale 1, while not optimal, is within our limits of using such a sale for something other than the highest tier item in the trade, i.e. if a bunch of items sold for a high tier hat (here: the TC), its typically not suited for a suggestion on any of the lower tier items in the bunch. Here, the gibus is by far the most significant item on the other end, and the adds account for about 20% of the trade. Given that the sale is close to the other anyway, Im not opposed to using it this way (but I would also have been fine with 370 flat here).
- The kazotsky is going to be a few keys too high here, but since the whole sale was rounded down by roughly the difference that makes, it's not really an issue. The same could go for the pot, though that mini has been covered now.