Here we go again.

Refined Metal

New price: 0.03 - 0.04$

Proof:

Marketplace.tf key sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

Most common sell prices in the last 3 days are 1.64$ - 1.65$.

After removing fees we're left with:

1.64$*0.9 = ~1.48$

1.65$*0.9 = ~1.49$

Marketplace.tf ref sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal

https://imgur.com/a/dKN1URO

Sales are currently at 0.04$.

PayPal Sales:

Seller #1:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38397-frosts-buying-keys-150-usd-paypal-trusted-~-no-rep-needed/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061836787

Bought 186 keys for 1.50$ each.

Seller #2:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/55118-buying-keys-for-paypal-148-fees-on-me-305-bptf-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197997268820

Bought 235 keys in the past one or two months for 1.48$ each.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/64508-selling-keys-for-paypal-199-250-cash-rep/?tab=comments#comment-592390

Sold some amount of keys for 1.99$ each.

Seller #3:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/39876-b-tf2-keys155-ref003paypalamazon-whole-backpacks-rep-for-days/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198032131059

Bought 289 keys for 1.55$ each.

Seller #4:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/62003-keys-for-155-and-backpacks-via-paypal-tons-of-rep-trusted-trader/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040898430

Bought 215 keys for 1.55$ each.

Seller #5:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68937-backpacks-quicksell-unusuals-and-keys-at-150/?tab=comments#comment-612426

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198040812694

Bought 162 keys for 1.50$ each.

Seller #6:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/67993-selling-mann-co-keys-158/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197976524938

Sold almost 600 keys for 1.60$ each.

Seller #7:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69254-selling-69-keys-for-165-each-you-cover-fees/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198253093948

Sold 123 keys for 1.65$ each.

Seller #8:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68890-buying-keys-for-156usd-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793444

Bought 200 keys for 1.56$ each.

_________________________________________________________

SUMMARY

Key sales:

1.48$

1.49$

1.50$

1.55$

1.56$

1.60$

1.65$

1.99$

1.99 is an outlier, especially because i don't know how many keys sold.

Keyprice in ref is 44.77 - 45 ref, however keyprices have climbed even higher, so i'm gonna take 46.66 ref here.

https://imgur.com/a/OjHDrTo

Convert that into the price per ref:

1.48$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.032 $/ref

1.49$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.032 $/ref

1.50$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.032 $/ref

1.55$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.033 $/ref

1.56$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.033 $/ref

1.60$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.034 $/ref

1.65$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.035 $/ref

Mp.tf key sales with fees included would be:

1.64$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.035 $/ref

1.65$ / 46.66 ref = ~0.035 $/ref

Mp.tf ref sales:

0.04 $/ref

Going with 0.03 - 0.04$.

Feel free to add proof to support or counter my new price.