Sale 1:

Sold for 4 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1543708800/1543795200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275179429#!/compare/1543363200/1543708800

https://backpack.tf/item/2865560719

X = 4

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys + 16 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286587589#!/compare/1544313600/1544918400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/item/5284820914

X = 3.5

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859540225#!/compare/1544400000/1544832000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141455733#!/compare/1544745600/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/item/5917142850

X = 3

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/1108;5;u3004

$5.10, 30/11 - https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-11-30 - $5.1 / $1.72 = 2.97 keys

$11.29, 14/12 - https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-14 - $11.29 / $1.64 = 6.88 keys

X = 7

X = 3

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6698932429 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/6578375417 (#4 & #5)

https://backpack.tf/item/5532316894 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/3882719403 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/2865560719 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/2788324037 (#9)

https://backpack.tf/item/2788324037 (#10-12)

https://backpack.tf/item/2758415814 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3636607192 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/5862595724 - tradeit

https://backpack.tf/item/6940735846 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/2716704474 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/6761121673 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/5989817805 - scrap

https://backpack.tf/item/2691669130 - gambled

#1

Transferred between accounts

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832761255#!/compare/1542499200/1542585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112820972#!/compare/1542240000/1542758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340960601#!/compare/1543968000/1544140800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340960601#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860317975#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

https://i.imgur.com/EEnzLj8.png - labelled as 4 keys + 5 ref, only 3 keys and 1.33 ref match.

#3

Sold for 3 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860317975#!/compare/1544918400/1545004800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359147197#!/compare/1544918400/1545004800

I’m convinced it was 4 keys, the 4th being spent on ref on the same day, but I can’t confirm this.

#4

Bulk for Purple Energy Shellmet

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156171744#!/compare/1544313600/1544486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198819564432#!/compare/1544227200/1544486400

#5

Untraceable, was also traded back

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198819564432#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360456278#!/compare/1544918400/1545091200

#6

Dunno chief

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198824289825#!/compare/1544918400/1545091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866221563#!/compare/1545004800/1545091200

#7

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1543795200/1544140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254751534#!/compare/1543276800/1544140800

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803445228#!/compare/1542585600/1542758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1542585600/1542672000

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160927249#!/compare/1543276800/1543536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1543276800/1543363200

#10

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1543968000/1544054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037846601#!/compare/1543881600/1544054400

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037846601#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180769950#!/compare/1544486400/1544918400

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180769950#!/compare/1544486400/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://i.imgur.com/EEnzLj8.png - Labelled as 3 keys + 12 ref

#13

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1544227200/1544313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286587589#!/compare/1544227200/1544313600

https://i.imgur.com/EEnzLj8.png - Labelled as 4 keys + 10 ref

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/Z9ajKof.png

https://i.imgur.com/rFdyXZS.png

https://i.imgur.com/n36GKe5.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6578375417 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6698932429 - ~4.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5989817805 - ~4.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2878033339 - ~4.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3843770954 - ~4.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2788324037 - ~4.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4551488156 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6270994197 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2891088648 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6485205371 - ~6.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3796267394 - 9 keys

Sales at:

3 (2x)

3.5

4

7

Sellers at 4+, excluding 7.

Buyers at ~3.25 keys, excluding 3.

Currently no buyers at 3 keys + 16 ref (sale 2’s unrounded value), so I’ll keep 3.5 in the range.

Going with 3.5-4.

https://marketplace.tf/items/1108;5;u3004

2 more sales at $5 and $11.29, both are either way too high or way too low compared to current sellers/buyers.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090737788#!/compare/1545436800/1545523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076254796#!/compare/1513987200/1545696000

scm

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076254796#!/compare/1546473600/1546646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113853563#!/compare/1546128000/1546473600

bulk for tesla coil burglerre

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113853563#!/compare/1546473600/1546560000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966287142#!/compare/1545868800/1546560000

sold for 4 keys + 4 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198938958#!/compare/1545782400/1546041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390339149#!/compare/1542240000/1546560000

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198819564432#!/compare/1545091200/1545177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044335614#!/compare/1545091200/1545177600

untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961452664#!/compare/1545436800/1545523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082869799#!/compare/1545350400/1545523200

probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1545868800/1545955200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218145199#!/compare/1545868800/1545955200

sold for 4 keys + 10 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218145199#!/compare/1546041600/1546128000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311437371#!/compare/1545955200/1546128000

untraceable