Sale 1:

Sold for $85 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/30413;5;u7

https://backpack.tf/item/6880116141

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-10-07 - $85 / $1.8 = 47.22 keys

X = 47

Sale 2:

Sold for Flaming Lantern Napper’s Respite (Mini at 25 below) + 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1541289600/1541376000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096136824#!/compare/1541116800/1541376000

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

Fairly certain my B/O was 45 at the time.

X = 45 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for Overclocked Nanobalaclava (Mini at 10 below) + Memory Leak Glengarry Bonnet (Mini at 17.5 below) + Nuts n’ Bolts Prince Tavish’s Crown (Mini at 10 below) + 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1542499200/1542758400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316101664#!/compare/1542672000/1542758400

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

X = 43

Sale 4:

Sold for 43 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1543536000/1543622400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060519836#!/compare/1540684800/1543968000

https://backpack.tf/item/5761180071

Keys were bought on marketplace, hence why the buyer’s name doesn’t appear in the key histories.

X = 43

Sale 5:

Sold for Spec. KS Aus Minigun (~18) + 19 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130990555#!/compare/1541808000/1541894400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346693777#!/compare/1541808000/1541894400

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

X = 37

Sale 6:

Sold for 31 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144346135#!/compare/1543708800/1543795200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150783829#!/compare/1543708800/1543795200

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

X = 31

Sale 7:

Bulk for Burning Slug

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084367252#!/compare/1542240000/1542326400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301244249#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

Better to use on slug.

Sale 8:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Burning Question + Massed Flies Human Cannonball

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301244249#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198394965271#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

This is looking like it’ll end up being too high, especially compared to current sellers.

Sale 9:

Bulk for Miami Crone’s Dome

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096136824#!/compare/1541376000/1541462400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130990555#!/compare/1541289600/1541462400

Sale 10:

Sold for Dead Presidents Law

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200111258#!/compare/1542412800/1542499200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1542412800/1542499200

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

Can be used on the Law.

Sale 11:

Bulk for Eldritch Tank Top, then traded back for something else involving a blizzardy storm gibus

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316101664#!/compare/1543017600/1543104000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334482284#!/compare/1542931200/1543104000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334482284#!/compare/1543276800/1543536000

Not using any of these.

Sale 12:

Bulk for Uncraftable Max’s

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316101664#!/compare/1543622400/1543708800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144346135#!/compare/1543622400/1543708800

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120

https://backpack.tf/item/3891188019 - nothing traceable here

Overclocked Nano Mini:

Sold for 10 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1542758400/1542844800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047860930#!/compare/1542585600/1542844800

https://backpack.tf/item/1648872760

X = 10

Memory Leak Glengarry Bonnet Mini:

Sale 1:

Sold with 4 keys + some metal for Strange Purple Energy Sky High Fly Guy (Mini at 25 below)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1544054400/1544140800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196597527#!/compare/1543968000/1544140800

https://backpack.tf/item/1672854029

X = 21

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys + 6 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131148043#!/compare/1543190400/1543363200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1543104000/1543190400

https://backpack.tf/item/1672854029

X = 14

Sale 3:

Untraceable, possibly another sale at 14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1543104000/1543190400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131148043#!/compare/1543104000/1543190400

https://backpack.tf/item/1672854029

Buyer at 14 and seller at ~18.5. High-end is too high and low-end is too low. Should still be fine to use as a mini, as it isn’t going to affect the mohawk too much.

Taking 14-21 (~17.5)

Strange Purple Energy Sky High Fly Guy Mini:

Sold for 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198515764827#!/compare/1542499200/1542585600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086092943#!/compare/1542499200/1542844800

Nuts n’ Bolts Prince Tavish’s Crown Mini:

Sold for 10 keys + 4 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1542585600/1542758400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201925322#!/compare/1542499200/1542758400

X = 10

Sold for $55 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/342;5;u31

Gonna pretend I didn’t see that.

Taking 10 flat.

Flaming Lantern Napper’s Mini:

Sold for 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1542412800/1542499200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166381563#!/compare/1541808000/1543449600

https://backpack.tf/item/565109920

https://i.imgur.com/ffjwoaz.png

https://i.imgur.com/ArN2BPa.png

X = 25

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/7sd0z62.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6486501718 - 55 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5738356120 - 60 keys

Sales at:

31

37

43 (2x)

45

47

Seller at 45 is 2 months unsold currently, and there are 2 marketplace sellers that are cheaper than what the sale at 47 sold for. Excluding 47.

31 looks like an outlier, excluding 31.

Going with 37-45.