Sales 1 & 2:

Sold for $54 & $53.99 on marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/337;5;u7

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-11-24 - $54 / $1.73 = 31.21 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-12-25 - $53.99 / $1.79 = 30.16 keys

X = 31

X = 30

Sale 3:

Sold for Green Energy Airdog (27.5) + 2 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255850609#!/compare/1538784000/1538870400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180662462#!/compare/1538784000/1538870400

https://backpack.tf/item/205573677

Was used in the Airdog suggestion, but the suggestor missed the 2 keys added (they even missed the key added in the noble sale in their phantom mini, dear god)

X = 30

Sale 4:

Sold for 27 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078207681#!/compare/1545436800/1545523200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126484580#!/compare/1545436800/1545696000

https://backpack.tf/item/280211988

X = 27

Sale 5:

Sold for 26 keys + some metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1540944000/1541030400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280357510#!/compare/1540944000/1541030400

https://backpack.tf/item/423190532

X = 26

Sale 6:

Sold for 26 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1543881600/1543968000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014728963#!/compare/1543881600/1543968000

https://backpack.tf/item/229016156

X = 26

Sale 7:

Sold with a key for Circling Heart Noble (27)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280357510#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089550918#!/compare/1541376000/1541635200

https://backpack.tf/item/423190532

X = 26

Sale 8:

Sold for 23 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131330149#!/compare/1538870400/1543795200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1543708800/1543795200

https://backpack.tf/item/229016156

X = 23

Sale 9:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089550918#!/compare/1542844800/1545782400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047281409#!/compare/1542585600/1542931200

https://backpack.tf/item/423190532

Sale 10:

Sold with a couple keys in items for Green Energy Familiar Fez

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288491241#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078207681#!/compare/1544832000/1544918400

https://backpack.tf/item/280211988

Sale 11:

SCM

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384202004#!/compare/1539475200/1544054400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919103#!/compare/1432882800/1541203200

https://backpack.tf/item/216344331

Sale 12:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128548987#!/compare/1538179200/1538438400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1538352000/1538438400

https://backpack.tf/item/205573677

Sale 13:

Sold for 23 keys?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1538524800/1538611200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255850609#!/compare/1536710400/1538611200

https://backpack.tf/item/205573677

I’m pretty sure more keys would’ve been involved. Excluding.

Sale 14:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180662462#!/compare/1540512000/1540598400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971485686#!/compare/1540512000/1540598400

https://backpack.tf/item/205573677

Sale 15:

Bulk for Purple Confetti Pencil Pusher

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971485686#!/compare/1545264000/1545350400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1545264000/1545350400

https://backpack.tf/item/205573677

Sale 16:

Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195022998#!/compare/1539302400/1539475200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1539388800/1539475200

https://backpack.tf/item/423190532

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/uS93BjC.png

https://backpack.tf/item/280211988 - 28 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/229016156 - 30 keys

Sales at:

23

26 (3x)

27

30 (2x)

31

Shouldn’t stray far from 30, given none of the sales around there are pure sales, and due to the sellers at or less than 30. Excluding 31. (If 31 were a real pure sale, it would have been kept in the range)

23 is low and countered by quickbuyers, excluding 23.

Going with 26-30.