$34.54
0 sold recently
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bot.tf
No KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=669&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0 | https://prnt.sc/m0iuzc
Normal KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=669&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=1 | 0 sales
Spec KS: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=669&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=2 | http://prntscr.com/m0ja14
No sales in past 7 days. Comment by Offline in other suggestion 8 days ago suggests none in the past 15 days.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c1b945c44325a5335319123 | https://prnt.sc/m0ivns
Current classifieds buyers:
17 @ 13 keys (all unsuccessful, and for some reason no KS has the highest buyers)
Cheapest seller @ 15 keys (4 days), Spec KS: https://backpack.tf/item/645543668 | https://prnt.sc/m0jldg
keys at 47.66 ref: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key/Tradable/Craftable
SCM
No KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Festive%20Scattergun
Normal KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Scattergun
Spec KS: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Scattergun
Sales / key price in past 14 days (in SGD):
No KS
Dec 16 - 49.44 / 3.05 = 16.2
Dec 23 - 48.08 / 2.90 = 16.6
Dec 25 - 37.55 / 2.96 = 12.7 (outlier due to classified buyers)
Normal KS no sales. All 3 Spec KS sales more than 17 keys - ignoring.
Cheapest seller @ 19.8 keys (Spec KS).
marketplace.tf
No KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/669;11/
Normal KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/669;11;kt-1
Spec KS: https://marketplace.tf/items/669;11;kt-2
Sales / key price in past 14 days (in USD):
No KS
Dec 18 - 26.44 / 1.65 = 16.0
Dec 20 - 26.44 / 1.65 = 16.0
Normal KS (only sales less than 16 keys)
Dec 26 - 28.00 / 1.80 = 15.6
3 other Normal KS sales around $29.95 / 16.6 keys.
2 Spec KS sales more than 17 keys - ignoring.
Cheapest seller @ $29.95 / 16.6 keys (Normal KS)
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Sales
No KS: 16.0,16.0,16.2,16.6
Normal KS: 15.6, 3 @ 16.6
Due to the Spec KS seller for 4 days at 15, it looks like 15-16 is the best fit here.
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Thanks to PlusEighteen for spotting the killstreaks.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c25f214cf6c757c99430282
https://backpack.tf/u/76561198018101085
Update as of 03 Jan 19:
https://prnt.sc/m2hmhv
bot.tf
Sales in past 24 hours:
Bought
-Nil-
Sold
1 @ 20 keys
Current classified buyers (unsuccessful):
17 @ 13.25
2 @ 13.20
Cheapest seller still 15 keys (Spec KS) for 10 days: https://backpack.tf/item/645543668
2 other Spec KS for under 20 keys: https://backpack.tf/item/633631372 | https://backpack.tf/item/626372472
keys at 44 ref: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key/Tradable/Craftable
SCM
No KS
Dec 28 - 60.03 / 2.92 = 20.6 (outlier)
Spec KS
Dec 29 - 31.88 / 2.94 = 10.8 (outlier)
Dec 31 - 54.72 / 2.96 = 18.5
Jan 01 - 53.58 / 2.97 = 18.0
Highest buyers: 3 @ 11 keys (No KS), 3 @ 11.4 keys (Normal KS)
Cheapest seller at 17.6 keys (Spec KS)
marketplace.tf has no update.
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Unfortunately, this update does not clear much with the pure sale at 20, given that there are currently 3 Spec KS for sale under 20 keys.
Looking at the relevant sales and sellers once again (with this update):
Sales
No KS: 12.7 (outlier), 16.0,16.0,16.2,16.6, 20 (outlier)
Normal KS: 15.6, 3 @ 16.6
Spec KS: 1 @10.8 (outlier), 7 @ >17
Sellers:
No KS: 2 @ 18.5 keys (SCM), 3 @ 20 keys (classies)
Normal KS: 1 @ 17 keys (mp.tf)
Spec KS: 1 @ 15 keys (classies), 1 @ 17 keys (classies), 1 @ 17.6 keys (SCM)
I believe 15-16 still gives the best range with outliers falling on both sides. The 10 day unsold Spec KS at 15 keys seems very odd, given the overall data.