Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.
Comments
Hi guys I'm here to do some quick maffs as to why TF2 is doomed and refined needs to be resurrected in order to save the game so we can trade psych0 all our hats from our inventories. Nah, just kidding, I'm not one of those people. There's blood in the streets right now, so let's have a look at the carnage.
backpack.tf's Classifieds
The theme this time is the current canyon that's present...or at the very least, is trying to be kept open by robots. Several sell listings have fallen down to 43.22 refined, but many robots are running rather aggressive margins. There aren't too many outliers this time, any that do pop up are very quickly taken care of.
Seller Supplies
Since it's a bear market, let's look at seller supplies first.
Listing #4 at 43.22 refined: https://i.imgur.com/9yIMkhg.png - had 6 keys. While writing this, they bumped to 43.33 refined, and two additional keys came in.
Anything that's higher than 43.22 doesn't get a bunch of movement (as seen in https://i.imgur.com/t3xrrRk.png, they're less-frequently-updated bot listings mixed with a few human listings), though I've set the high value to 43.44 mostly because of ScrapTF's buying point being exactly that. I've written a whole bit about ScrapTF so go read it.
Buyer Supplies
Buy low, sell high, and keep the goods moving. Too bad that The Liquidator isn't on Canadian TV anymore, it's actually a really funny show. Anyway, margins are wide. A lot of these listings are from the same bot listings also selling keys to keep their goods moving too. 43.11 refined listings are quickly disappearing. Below is a taste of them:
Listing #2 at 43.11 refined (on buy side): https://i.imgur.com/ej5NDMY.png - has 200+ keys, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #3. They're more so hoping to get rid of their supply quickly so they can eventually buy it back at a lower buy price, they're obviously not concerned with buybacks right now though.
Listing #4 at 42.77 refined (on buy side): https://i.imgur.com/k2UIKuA.png - has 43 keys, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #5. Wide margin.
Many bots that claim to have large inventories that have a buy listing up almost definitely have a sell listing up for a considerably higher price to be able to get their inventory and hopefully buy it back later on lower. A sharp divide becomes apparent after 42.77 refined, as any listings below that are from humans, as demonstrated in https://i.imgur.com/ZXnvEhL.png. There's a bit of a separate canyon there, a .44 refined wide one that is.
Websites
ScrapTF: usually a lot quicker to respond to downward trends, as has occurred several times in the last couple of days. At submission time, ScrapTF was buying for 43.44 refined and selling for 43.77 refined. One note I do want to bring up is the fact that it claims it has no keys at all. In a bear market, this certainly isn't actually the case, as people looking for quick flips from classified bots would race to flood their bots, and the race downwards would definitely send some into panic selling to a safe-haven site like Scrap. I've also managed a couple of flips myself a day and two ago, but one difference that I've noticed which might play a part in the site claiming that it has zero keys is that their storage bots facilitated the trade (https://i.imgur.com/yOu23Fo.png) as opposed to one of their regular bots (like the Scraponomy Crasher, https://i.imgur.com/VYTb6q0.png). Having a look at Storage 6's inventory, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116850102?time=1546560000, it has over 1250 keys. Storage 7, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116869119?time=1546560000, has >250 keys. Storage 1, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121112796?time=1546560000, has >675 keys. You probably get the point by now. It's important to note that not all of these keys may be from key selling, since it is a spendable currency just like Refined Metal. Why Scrap would be doing this is unclear - maybe they're planning on releasing their (obviously huge) supply at some point when they believe they can grab maximum profits if this is a deliberate bet that it's a short-term downswing, thereby outplaying the rest of the market. There would be a lot for them to lose however if this were to be a long-term trend so it doesn't make too much sense. It probably isn't illegal-under-their-rules robots autobuying them, but it'd be quite stupid if someone did have autobuying bots still going in a bear market instead of autoselling bots. It's always possible it could be a bot destination bug too, maybe they didn't mean to have keys going to storage for this long.
STN-Trading: its range, and its margin are the widest I've seen it at probably ever, with them buying for 43.22 refined, and selling a whole refined higher at 44.22 refined. It has 32 keys at time of submission, but it was higher a short while ago, probably as a result of some people thinking 44 refined or higher was still a good price to buy at. Their loss.
Marketplace.tf (to USD): valuation did recover a bit during Christmas to about $1.80 from a low of $1.65, but has since stabilized around $1.76. There were a lot more sales than usual in the lead up to and on the day of Christmas, so whether or not this is a proper barometer of it being more than a correction in value is debatable.
I may be reading this wrong, but where's 43 coming from?
There are currently buyers at 43.11 Refined, so I feel 43 is low unless there are sales I'm missing.
I went with 43 as a floor since the 42.77 listings are again mostly bots doing the sell high/buy low thing and speculating that the sell side will inch closer towards that. A 42.77 to 43.44 range would be way too wide, and given the momentum the market has right now, 43 allows for either the sell side to go closer to that or the buy side to come back up towards that, if either side does so.
If you don't have set proof on 43, you can't include 43.
remove the clickbait first few lines ffs
I switched the opening sentence to the one about blood in the streets. Besides, if you're voting on currencies after reading just the opening sentence and nothing else, you're probably in for a bad time, you should be reading the whole thing anyway.
If you're voting on currency suggestions, you should probably be reading the whole thing anyway.
Well the speculation on this shit is very toxic but thank God it's about time for a down trend in keys. We need to revive refined.
Looking at classies this may be outdated already, however mods have accepted key suggestions, that were quickly outdated, before.
I mean this still is a better market reflection than 44.77 - 45.
Im impressed by your writing, but its pretty pointless.
I was just about to reply this to Roger: If the market continues its race downwards out of the range, it might be [pointless writing] and I might have to surrender and self-close it. If nothing else, hey, maybe someone can gain something out of these market notes for themselves.
Yea, ignore my stupid comment, i thought it was one of those suggestions where it was just nonsense, but you had actual proof. I just read the first sentences lmao
No sales at 43 used as proof
Buyers moved to 42.77-43 and lower
Sellers moved to 43.22
I'd recommend just wait for the market to stabilize and close the suggestion until then
However waiting for the mods is the right choice too
Downvote anyways
Key prices to refined are going down quick that this suggestion is a bit irrelevant XD its down to 42 ish refined.
Market observation update: since last night sell side has drifted closer towards 43 and 43.11 refined, while the buy side has pulled back a bit to 42.88 refined. Still think this is a good range to account for tiny market wobbles that may occur, it appears downwards momentum may be beginning to stall out. ScrapTF has not moved its range (and supplies have not shown up for sale), while STN-Trading has moved to buying at 43 refined on the dot and selling for 43.66 refined (bit of margin pullback). 275 keys are available on STN-Trading.
The market no longer includes 43.44 Refined.
Actually here on bp.tf peeps are selling for 43 refs and there are buyers for 43 ref and many others for 42.88 ref, Imho you should re-do this with a lower price.
ScrapTF has shifted its range down to 42.88/43.22, but still no visible supplies. STN's betting on the market going even lower, its range is now at 42.44/43.11 with about similar supply as last night, ~250 keys. Will wait a while longer to see if market closes their ranges in or goes lower...
Also wanna point out that while there are a few classifieds that are now selling below 43, a large majority of the bot listings have set 43 as their floor. Many buy listings are just below that at 42.88 though there are also a handful of buy listings at 43. STN's supplies have drifted downwards to a bit over 200 keys at their current 42.44/43.11 range, so sales are still definitely happening at 43.11.
I guess having noticed that they were still making sales at 43.11, STN bumped their range by a scrap each, to 42.55/43.22. Supply has piled up since then to 390 keys.
That first line was mad clickbait that was well executed. Nice one
drop for once, nice
And again something happens to keys on market, I think we need just wait for it when they will stabilize and yeah I guess you didnt do a proof :/
Hi guys I'm here to do some quick maffs as to why TF2 is doomed and refined needs to be resurrected in order to save the game so we can trade psych0 all our hats from our inventories. Nah, just kidding, I'm not one of those people. There's blood in the streets right now, so let's have a look at the carnage.
backpack.tf's Classifieds
The theme this time is the current canyon that's present...or at the very least, is trying to be kept open by robots. Several sell listings have fallen down to 43.22 refined, but many robots are running rather aggressive margins. There aren't too many outliers this time, any that do pop up are very quickly taken care of.
Seller Supplies
Since it's a bear market, let's look at seller supplies first.
Listing #1 at 43.22 refined: https://i.imgur.com/vs3uP30.png - has 2 keys.
Listing #2 at 43.22 refined: https://i.imgur.com/wh5yY3u.png - has 1 key.
Listing #3 at 43.22 refined (on sell side): https://i.imgur.com/ej5NDMY.png - has 200+ keys.
Listing #4 at 43.22 refined: https://i.imgur.com/9yIMkhg.png - had 6 keys. While writing this, they bumped to 43.33 refined, and two additional keys came in.
Listing #5 at 43.22 refined (on sell side): https://i.imgur.com/k2UIKuA.png - has 43 keys.
Anything that's higher than 43.22 doesn't get a bunch of movement (as seen in https://i.imgur.com/t3xrrRk.png, they're less-frequently-updated bot listings mixed with a few human listings), though I've set the high value to 43.44 mostly because of ScrapTF's buying point being exactly that. I've written a whole bit about ScrapTF so go read it.
Buyer Supplies
Buy low, sell high, and keep the goods moving. Too bad that The Liquidator isn't on Canadian TV anymore, it's actually a really funny show. Anyway, margins are wide. A lot of these listings are from the same bot listings also selling keys to keep their goods moving too. 43.11 refined listings are quickly disappearing. Below is a taste of them:
Listing #1 at 43.11 refined: https://i.imgur.com/0LEWEf1.png - has 1 key, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #2.
Listing #2 at 43.11 refined (on buy side): https://i.imgur.com/ej5NDMY.png - has 200+ keys, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #3. They're more so hoping to get rid of their supply quickly so they can eventually buy it back at a lower buy price, they're obviously not concerned with buybacks right now though.
Listing #3 at 43.11 refined: https://i.imgur.com/OHjDn1o.png - has 4 keys.
Many listings that are below 43 refined come from many of the same suspects that are also selling keys, a couple of which are depicted here:
Listing #1 at 42.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/Cr5JoVP.png - has 2 keys, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #1.
Listing #2 at 42.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/juPZuNe.png - has 23 keys.
Listing #3 at 42.77 refined: https://i.imgur.com/YieN4Ov.png - has no keys.
Listing #4 at 42.77 refined (on buy side): https://i.imgur.com/k2UIKuA.png - has 43 keys, same profile as 43.22 ref listing #5. Wide margin.
Many bots that claim to have large inventories that have a buy listing up almost definitely have a sell listing up for a considerably higher price to be able to get their inventory and hopefully buy it back later on lower. A sharp divide becomes apparent after 42.77 refined, as any listings below that are from humans, as demonstrated in https://i.imgur.com/ZXnvEhL.png. There's a bit of a separate canyon there, a .44 refined wide one that is.
Websites
ScrapTF: usually a lot quicker to respond to downward trends, as has occurred several times in the last couple of days. At submission time, ScrapTF was buying for 43.44 refined and selling for 43.77 refined. One note I do want to bring up is the fact that it claims it has no keys at all. In a bear market, this certainly isn't actually the case, as people looking for quick flips from classified bots would race to flood their bots, and the race downwards would definitely send some into panic selling to a safe-haven site like Scrap. I've also managed a couple of flips myself a day and two ago, but one difference that I've noticed which might play a part in the site claiming that it has zero keys is that their storage bots facilitated the trade (https://i.imgur.com/yOu23Fo.png) as opposed to one of their regular bots (like the Scraponomy Crasher, https://i.imgur.com/VYTb6q0.png). Having a look at Storage 6's inventory, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116850102?time=1546560000, it has over 1250 keys. Storage 7, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116869119?time=1546560000, has >250 keys. Storage 1, https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121112796?time=1546560000, has >675 keys. You probably get the point by now. It's important to note that not all of these keys may be from key selling, since it is a spendable currency just like Refined Metal. Why Scrap would be doing this is unclear - maybe they're planning on releasing their (obviously huge) supply at some point when they believe they can grab maximum profits if this is a deliberate bet that it's a short-term downswing, thereby outplaying the rest of the market. There would be a lot for them to lose however if this were to be a long-term trend so it doesn't make too much sense. It probably isn't illegal-under-their-rules robots autobuying them, but it'd be quite stupid if someone did have autobuying bots still going in a bear market instead of autoselling bots. It's always possible it could be a bot destination bug too, maybe they didn't mean to have keys going to storage for this long.
STN-Trading: its range, and its margin are the widest I've seen it at probably ever, with them buying for 43.22 refined, and selling a whole refined higher at 44.22 refined. It has 32 keys at time of submission, but it was higher a short while ago, probably as a result of some people thinking 44 refined or higher was still a good price to buy at. Their loss.
Marketplace.tf (to USD): valuation did recover a bit during Christmas to about $1.80 from a low of $1.65, but has since stabilized around $1.76. There were a lot more sales than usual in the lead up to and on the day of Christmas, so whether or not this is a proper barometer of it being more than a correction in value is debatable.
I may be reading this wrong, but where's 43 coming from?
There are currently buyers at 43.11 Refined, so I feel 43 is low unless there are sales I'm missing.
I went with 43 as a floor since the 42.77 listings are again mostly bots doing the sell high/buy low thing and speculating that the sell side will inch closer towards that. A 42.77 to 43.44 range would be way too wide, and given the momentum the market has right now, 43 allows for either the sell side to go closer to that or the buy side to come back up towards that, if either side does so.
If you don't have set proof on 43, you can't include 43.
remove the clickbait first few lines ffs
If you're voting on currency suggestions, you should probably be reading the whole thing anyway.
Well the speculation on this shit is very toxic but thank God it's about time for a down trend in keys. We need to revive refined.
Looking at classies this may be outdated already, however mods have accepted key suggestions, that were quickly outdated, before.
I mean this still is a better market reflection than 44.77 - 45.
I was just about to reply this to Roger: If the market continues its race downwards out of the range, it might be [pointless writing] and I might have to surrender and self-close it. If nothing else, hey, maybe someone can gain something out of these market notes for themselves.
Yea, ignore my stupid comment, i thought it was one of those suggestions where it was just nonsense, but you had actual proof. I just read the first sentences lmao
No sales at 43 used as proof
Buyers moved to 42.77-43 and lower
Sellers moved to 43.22
I'd recommend just wait for the market to stabilize and close the suggestion until then
However waiting for the mods is the right choice too
Downvote anyways
Key prices to refined are going down quick that this suggestion is a bit irrelevant XD its down to 42 ish refined.
Market observation update: since last night sell side has drifted closer towards 43 and 43.11 refined, while the buy side has pulled back a bit to 42.88 refined. Still think this is a good range to account for tiny market wobbles that may occur, it appears downwards momentum may be beginning to stall out. ScrapTF has not moved its range (and supplies have not shown up for sale), while STN-Trading has moved to buying at 43 refined on the dot and selling for 43.66 refined (bit of margin pullback). 275 keys are available on STN-Trading.
The market no longer includes 43.44 Refined.
Actually here on bp.tf peeps are selling for 43 refs and there are buyers for 43 ref and many others for 42.88 ref, Imho you should re-do this with a lower price.
ScrapTF has shifted its range down to 42.88/43.22, but still no visible supplies. STN's betting on the market going even lower, its range is now at 42.44/43.11 with about similar supply as last night, ~250 keys. Will wait a while longer to see if market closes their ranges in or goes lower...
Also wanna point out that while there are a few classifieds that are now selling below 43, a large majority of the bot listings have set 43 as their floor. Many buy listings are just below that at 42.88 though there are also a handful of buy listings at 43. STN's supplies have drifted downwards to a bit over 200 keys at their current 42.44/43.11 range, so sales are still definitely happening at 43.11.
I guess having noticed that they were still making sales at 43.11, STN bumped their range by a scrap each, to 42.55/43.22. Supply has piled up since then to 390 keys.
That first line was mad clickbait that was well executed. Nice one
And again something happens to keys on market, I think we need just wait for it when they will stabilize and yeah I guess you didnt do a proof :/
Now outdated.