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~125 keys
frostbite
Unusual Scout Shako Frostbite
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sale 1: sold 1:1 for a duped disco beat down brown bomber

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1543449600/1543536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212369645#!/compare/1543449600/1543795200


mini sale 1:

28. Nov. 2018: sold for $90 usd on mp.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

key price for that day: $1.71

90/1.71=~53k


mini sale 2:

sold 1:1 for a time warp plug-in prospector

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1543536000/1543622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223191956#!/compare/1543536000/1543622400


mini mini on the prospector:

bulk https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223191956#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200

no mini :(


final sale: 53


sale 2: sold for a pro ks aussie rifle + corona + strange pro ks wrench

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1543881600/1543968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212369645#!/compare/1543881600/1544054400

bot.tf sales for the past 7 days: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=201&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=1&ks=3

1 sold @35k, 38ref

1 sold @36k, 40ref

1 sold @35k

2 bought @36k, 33 ref

2 bought @33k, 13 ref

current buyers @33.45k, sellers @35k

taking 33-36

corona:

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30648&q=6&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0

https://i.gyazo.com/642ffd4207ae5fdc1380ab7c03bff5cc.png

past 30 days:

7 bought @11 keys

2 sold @10 keys, 41.22 ref

1 @11k, 5.66ref

1 @11k, 5ref

1@11k, 4.88ref

1@11k, 4ref

1@10k, 42ref

1@10k, 41.44ref

current sellers all at 14.67 but none have sold

taking 11

strange pro ks wrench:

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=197&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=3

https://i.gyazo.com/db0707334574bcdd1e73f98d0a3f1cf4.png

1 bought @7k, 14.77ref

3 sold @8k, 27.44 ref

1 sold @8k, 29.11 ref

taking 8


34.5+11+8=53.5

sale 3: untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055983562#!/compare/1541289600/1541548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1541289600/1541376000


sale 4: sold for a HG janissary ketche + an a.codex head full of hot air and 3 keys + like 0.6 in sweets

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043753037#!/compare/1541462400/1541635200

no apparent mini on the ketche, excluding


sale 5: sold for 37 keys and a strange spec ks sniper rifle (sells and buys on bot.tf for about 1 key)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093459828#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043753037#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=201&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=2


taking 38


sales:

38

53

54


taking 38-54

    Not sure why you would call sale 1 a "clear outlier" when the item's outdated price is less than the suggested high-end, but regardless, my b/o for that sale was either 40 or 45, so it would fit in the range.

      sorry, that was residue from my previous suggestion copy and pasted. fixed.