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sale 1: sold 1:1 for a duped disco beat down brown bomber
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1543449600/1543536000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212369645#!/compare/1543449600/1543795200
mini sale 1:
28. Nov. 2018: sold for $90 usd on mp.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key
key price for that day: $1.71
90/1.71=~53k
mini sale 2:
sold 1:1 for a time warp plug-in prospector
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1543536000/1543622400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223191956#!/compare/1543536000/1543622400
mini mini on the prospector:
bulk https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223191956#!/compare/1544572800/1544659200
no mini :(
final sale: 53
sale 2: sold for a pro ks aussie rifle + corona + strange pro ks wrench
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1543881600/1543968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212369645#!/compare/1543881600/1544054400
bot.tf sales for the past 7 days: https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=201&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=1&ks=3
1 sold @35k, 38ref
1 sold @36k, 40ref
1 sold @35k
2 bought @36k, 33 ref
2 bought @33k, 13 ref
current buyers @33.45k, sellers @35k
taking 33-36
corona:
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30648&q=6&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0
https://i.gyazo.com/642ffd4207ae5fdc1380ab7c03bff5cc.png
past 30 days:
7 bought @11 keys
2 sold @10 keys, 41.22 ref
1 @11k, 5.66ref
1 @11k, 5ref
1@11k, 4.88ref
1@11k, 4ref
1@10k, 42ref
1@10k, 41.44ref
current sellers all at 14.67 but none have sold
taking 11
strange pro ks wrench:
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=197&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=3
https://i.gyazo.com/db0707334574bcdd1e73f98d0a3f1cf4.png
1 bought @7k, 14.77ref
3 sold @8k, 27.44 ref
1 sold @8k, 29.11 ref
taking 8
34.5+11+8=53.5
sale 3: untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055983562#!/compare/1541289600/1541548800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1541289600/1541376000
sale 4: sold for a HG janissary ketche + an a.codex head full of hot air and 3 keys + like 0.6 in sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407541175#!/compare/1541548800/1541635200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043753037#!/compare/1541462400/1541635200
no apparent mini on the ketche, excluding
sale 5: sold for 37 keys and a strange spec ks sniper rifle (sells and buys on bot.tf for about 1 key)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093459828#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043753037#!/compare/1542326400/1542412800
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=201&q=11&ef=&craft=1&aus=0&ks=2
taking 38
sales:
38
53
54
taking 38-54
Not sure why you would call sale 1 a "clear outlier" when the item's outdated price is less than the suggested high-end, but regardless, my b/o for that sale was either 40 or 45, so it would fit in the range.
sorry, that was residue from my previous suggestion copy and pasted. fixed.